2026 Buffalo vs 2026 Massachusetts

Published

Buffalo by 9.0

74% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

BuffaloPreseason baseline −7.5In-season results +0.2

MassachusettsPreseason baseline −24.0In-season results +10.2

Buffalo home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Buffalo	2026 Massachusetts
Offensive / play	0.0318th percentile	0.2064th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1134th percentile	−0.0377th percentile
Points per game	20.817th percentile6 games	29.751st percentile6 games
per game	26.828th percentile6 games	18.278th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Buffalo2026 Massachusetts

Momentum

Buffalo↘ falling (−24 pctl over 3 seasons)

Massachusetts↗ rising (+20 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Buffalo

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 11th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−18)

2026 Massachusetts

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 23rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+16)

Campus distance

320 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Buffalo OL vs 2026 Massachusetts DL	298.1 lbs	273.1 lbs
2026 Massachusetts OL vs 2026 Buffalo DL	314.7 lbs	254.4 lbs

2026 Buffalo line yards 2.72 · 2026 Massachusetts stuff rate 20.8%

2026 Massachusetts line yards 3.25 · 2026 Buffalo stuff rate 16.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Buffalo leads 6–1 since 2000

Buffalo has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Buffalo 28–21 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2024	Buffalo 34–3 Massachusetts	UB Stadium · Buffalo home
2022	Buffalo 34–7 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2015	Buffalo 26–31 Massachusetts	UB Stadium · Buffalo home
2014	Buffalo 41–21 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2013	Buffalo 32–3 Massachusetts	UB Stadium · Buffalo home
2012	Buffalo 29–19 Massachusetts	Gillette Stadium · Massachusetts home

Coaching & program context

2026 Buffalo

Pete Lembo

Tony Tokarz

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 31st percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.7 plays a game, 94th percentile)

Brian Dougherty

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

2026 Massachusetts

Joe Harasymiak

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 25th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.5 plays a game, 1st percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.