Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Massachusetts
4–2
1:00 PM ETUB StadiumAmherst, NY
Partly cloudy46°FNW 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 12%
At kickoff · 1:00 PM ET · Updated 3:58 PM ET · National Weather Service
Amherst · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy46°FNW 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 12%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
74%
Buffalo win probability
Massachusetts 26%
Buffalo by 9.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Massachusetts's case
Massachusetts's defense is in the 78th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Buffalo's offense is in the 17th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Buffalo's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Massachusetts's defense.
03 · What could swing it
Buffalo's leading passer has thrown 65% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jason Wright · 65% of charted pass attempts
109 of 112 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 90 short · 19 deep · 3 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (49%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 6.8 over 52 attempts with a result.
The Buffalo offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
63/129 · 49% season
Last game
Toledo · Oct 10, 2026: 14/31, 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Toledo · Oct 10, 2026: 17 carries, 137 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Toledo · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 17 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason WrightQB | 5 | 63 / 129 | 726 | 5.6 | 4 | 3 |
| Elijah HolmesQB | 2 | 35 / 61 | 253 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson IIIQB | 5 | 74 / 100 | 820 | 8.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Aedan McCarthyQB | 2 | 17 / 33 | 182 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan InagawaQB | 1 | 6 / 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Buffalo's line averages 298.1 lbs against Massachusetts's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 25.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo OLBuffalo OL vs Massachusetts DL | 298.1 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
| Massachusetts OLMassachusetts OL vs Buffalo DL | 314.7 lbs | 254.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Buffalo: solid line, circles · Massachusetts: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 80 recorded plays
W 23–8
34%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 68 recorded plays
L 17–20
43%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 91 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 31–28
44%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play
Tony Tokarz
no career rating on file
Brian Dougherty
no career rating on file
Joe Harasymiak
career −36.6 SP+ overall
2025 · Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2024 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2022 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 7
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2015 · Massachusetts 31, Buffalo 26
UB Stadium
2014 · Buffalo 41, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2013 · Buffalo 32, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2012 · Buffalo 29, Massachusetts 19
Gillette Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date