2026 Boise State vs 2026 Washington State
Hypothetical
91% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Boise State Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.1, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.3, 8th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.1, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 205.7 pts, 64th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Washington State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 159.3 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Boise State Experience · returning production 2026: 66% returning, 78th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Washington State Experience · returning production 2026: 91% returning, 96th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Boise State | 2026 Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3293rd percentile | −0.113rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.072nd percentile6 games | 18.511th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.356th percentile6 games | 23.747th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 55th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 70th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 41st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 19th percentile
Campus distance
220 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Boise State OL vs 2026 Washington State DL | 297.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| 2026 Washington State OL vs 2026 Boise State DL | 301.3 lbs | 289.7 lbs |
2026 Boise State line yards 3.45 · 2026 Washington State stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Washington State line yards 2.68 · 2026 Boise State stuff rate 26.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Washington State leads 3–2 since 2000
Boise State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boise State 45–24 Washington State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2017 | Boise State 44–47 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2016 | Boise State 31–28 Washington State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2001 | Boise State 20–41 Washington State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2000 | Boise State 35–42 Washington State | Washington State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Spencer Danielson
OC
- Nate Potter
- Zak Hill (co-OC)
career average +33.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 18th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Erik Chinander
- Terrence Brown (co-DC)
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kirby Moore (First season as Washington State's head coach)
OC
- Matt Miller
career average +29.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 70th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Trent Bray
career average +20.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Boise State at Washington State · October 24, 2026
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