Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
5–1 · AP #23
at
Washington State
1–5
6:00 PM ET3:00 PM PTGesa FieldPullman, WA
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · Boise State's case
Boise State's defense is in the 72nd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Washington State's offense is in the 1st percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Washington State's answer
In every matchup we can rate this season, the Washington State unit ranks well below the Boise State unit it faces.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Maddux Madsen · 77% of charted pass attempts
111 of 111 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 100 short · 11 deep · 0 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.2 over 19 attempts with a result.
The Boise State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
110/166 · 66% season
Last game
Fresno State · Oct 10, 2026: 23/34, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Fresno State · Oct 10, 2026: 19 carries, 150 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Utah State · Oct 3, 2026: 5 rec, 88 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux MadsenQB | 6 | 110 / 166 | 1,296 | 7.8 | 13 | 0 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden PinnickQB | 6 | 110 / 178 | 952 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Boise State's line averages 297.6 lbs against Washington State's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 24.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State OLBoise State OL vs Washington State DL | 297.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| Washington State OLWashington State OL vs Boise State DL | 301.3 lbs | 289.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Boise State: solid line, circles · Washington State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 81 recorded plays
W 38–31
47%
Success rate
0.40
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
W 37–18
46%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 54 recorded plays
W 32–7
54%
Success rate
0.42
PPA / play
Spencer Danielson
career +6.4 SP+ overall
Nate Potter
career +33.3 SP+ offense
Zak Hill
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.3 SP+ offense
Erik Chinander
career +25.7 SP+ defense
Terrence Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.7 SP+ defense
Kirby Moore
First season as Washington State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Bsuorangecrush (talk), Public domain
Matt Miller
career +29.1 SP+ offense
Trent Bray
career +20.0 SP+ defense
2024 · Boise State 45, Washington State 24
Albertsons Stadium
2017 · Washington State 47, Boise State 44
Gesa Field
2016 · Boise State 31, Washington State 28
Albertsons Stadium
2001 · Washington State 41, Boise State 20
Albertsons Stadium
2000 · Washington State 42, Boise State 35
Evidence window: 2026 season to date