2026 Boise State vs 2026 Fresno State
Hypothetical
75% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Boise State Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.1, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.1, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.9, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boise State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 205.7 pts, 64th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Fresno State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.4 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Boise State Experience · returning production 2026: 66% returning, 78th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Fresno State Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning, 47th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Boise State | 2026 Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3293rd percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 35.072nd percentile6 games | 28.347th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.356th percentile6 games | 20.069th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 55th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 70th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 37th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 58th percentile
Campus distance
505 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Boise State OL vs 2026 Fresno State DL | 297.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
| 2026 Fresno State OL vs 2026 Boise State DL | 305.0 lbs | 289.7 lbs |
2026 Boise State line yards 3.45 · 2026 Fresno State stuff rate 17.8%
2026 Fresno State line yards 2.58 · 2026 Boise State stuff rate 26.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Boise State leads 18–7 since 2000
Boise State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State 38–31 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2025 | Boise State 7–30 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2023 | Boise State 30–37 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2022 | Boise State 16–28 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2022 | Boise State 40–20 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2021 | Boise State 40–14 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2018 | Boise State 16–19 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2018 | Boise State 24–17 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2017 | Boise State 17–14 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2017 | Boise State 17–28 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2014 | Boise State 28–14 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2014 | Boise State 37–27 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2013 | Boise State 40–41 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2012 | Boise State 20–10 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2011 | Boise State 57–7 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2010 | Boise State 51–0 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2009 | Boise State 51–34 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2008 | Boise State 61–10 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2007 | Boise State 34–21 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2006 | Boise State 45–21 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2005 | Boise State 7–27 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2004 | Boise State 33–16 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2003 | Boise State 31–17 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2002 | Boise State 67–21 Fresno State | Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home |
| 2001 | Boise State 35–30 Fresno State | Fresno State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Spencer Danielson
OC
- Nate Potter
- Zak Hill (co-OC)
career average +33.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 18th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Erik Chinander
- Terrence Brown (co-DC)
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Matt Entz
OC
- Josh Davis
career average +23.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 67th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.3 plays a game, 10th percentile)
DC
- Adam Breske (co-DC)
- Nick Benedetto
career average +27.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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