2026 Ball State vs 2026 Bowling Green
Hypothetical
62% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Ball State Offense · SP+ 2026: 14.2, 5th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Bowling Green Offense · SP+ 2026: 13.8, 4th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ball State Defense · SP+ 2026: 38.9, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Bowling Green Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.7, 18th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ball State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Bowling Green Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ball State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 170.0 pts, 18th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Bowling Green Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 188.0 pts, 46th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Ball State Experience · returning production 2026: 6% returning, 7th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Bowling Green Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Ball State | 2026 Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0522nd percentile | −0.038th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.321st percentile | 0.1328th percentile |
| Points per game | 18.39th percentile6 games | 15.84th percentile6 games |
| per game | 39.03rd percentile6 games | 29.217th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 17th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 1st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 29th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 8th percentile
Campus distance
125 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Ball State OL vs 2026 Bowling Green DL | 296.5 lbs | 267.9 lbs |
| 2026 Bowling Green OL vs 2026 Ball State DL | 306.6 lbs | 278.5 lbs |
2026 Ball State line yards 2.64 · 2026 Bowling Green stuff rate 17.3%
2026 Bowling Green line yards 2.60 · 2026 Ball State stuff rate 18.3%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Bowling Green leads 8–1 since 2000
Bowling Green has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ball State 13–38 Bowling Green | Scheumann Stadium · Ball State home |
| 2023 | Ball State 21–24 Bowling Green | Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green home |
| 2015 | Ball State 10–48 Bowling Green | Scheumann Stadium · Ball State home |
| 2014 | Ball State 41–24 Bowling Green | Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green home |
| 2009 | Ball State 17–31 Bowling Green | Scheumann Stadium · Ball State home |
| 2005 | Ball State 31–40 Bowling Green | Scheumann Stadium · Ball State home |
| 2004 | Ball State 13–51 Bowling Green | Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green home |
| 2003 | Ball State 14–41 Bowling Green | Scheumann Stadium · Ball State home |
| 2002 | Ball State 20–38 Bowling Green | Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mike Uremovich
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 53% of its run–pass plays, 89th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.5 plays a game, 28th percentile)
DC
- Jeff Knowles
career average +32.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Eddie George
OC
- Greg Nosal
career average +23.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 34th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.3 plays a game, 4th percentile)
DC
- Joe Bowden
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Ball State at Bowling Green · October 17, 2026
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
