Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
1–5
at
Bowling Green
2–4
12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry StadiumBowling Green, OH
Clear49°FNW 9 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:31 PM ET · National Weather Service
Bowling Green · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear49°FNW 9 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
25%
Ball State win probability
Bowling Green 75%
Bowling Green by 9.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Ball State's case
Ball State's defense is in the 17th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Bowling Green's offense is in the 11th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Bowling Green's answer
Bowling Green's defense is in the 17th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Ball State's offense is in the 9th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Ball State a 25% chance to win and predicts Bowling Green by 9.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Keldric Luster · 77% of charted pass attempts
124 of 127 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 111 short · 13 deep · 3 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.0 over 23 attempts with a result.
The Ball State offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
103/160 · 64% season
Last game
Northwestern · Oct 10, 2026: 27/41, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Northwestern · Oct 10, 2026: 6 carries, 10 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Northwestern · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 53 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldric LusterQB | 5 | 103 / 160 | 871 | 5.4 | 6 | 4 |
| Tyler MizzellQB | 4 | 23 / 38 | 260 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason AtkinsQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay KastantinQB | 6 | 94 / 143 | 986 | 6.9 | 5 | 3 |
| Austin NovosadQB | 2 | 3 / 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Ball State's line averages 296.5 lbs against Bowling Green's 267.9 lbs front — an edge of 28.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Ball State OLBall State OL vs Bowling Green DL | 296.5 lbs | 267.9 lbs |
| Bowling Green OLBowling Green OL vs Ball State DL | 306.6 lbs | 278.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Ball State: solid line, circles · Bowling Green: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 52 recorded plays
L 14–45
40%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
L 24–39
38%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 56 recorded plays
L 13–26
27%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Mike Uremovich
career −23.0 SP+ overall
Jeff Knowles
career +32.0 SP+ defense
Greg Nosal
career +23.6 SP+ offense
Joe Bowden
no career rating on file
2024 · Bowling Green 38, Ball State 13
Scheumann Stadium
2023 · Bowling Green 24, Ball State 21
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2015 · Bowling Green 48, Ball State 10
Scheumann Stadium
2014 · Ball State 41, Bowling Green 24
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2009 · Bowling Green 31, Ball State 17
Scheumann Stadium
2005 · Bowling Green 40, Ball State 31
Scheumann Stadium
2004 · Bowling Green 51, Ball State 13
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
2003 · Bowling Green 41, Ball State 14
Scheumann Stadium
2002 · Bowling Green 38, Ball State 20
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date