2026 Alabama vs 2026 East Carolina

Hypothetical

Alabama by 30.4

98% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

AlabamaPreseason baseline +25.7In-season results +7.5

East CarolinaPreseason baseline +3.0In-season results −2.7

East Carolina home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Alabama	2026 East Carolina
Offensive / play	0.3395th percentile	0.0420th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	−0.0790th percentile
Points per game	44.299th percentile6 games	24.831st percentile5 games
per game	20.767th percentile6 games	22.654th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Alabama2026 East Carolina

Momentum

Alabama→ steady (−3 pctl over 3 seasons)

East Carolina→ steady (−3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Alabama

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 99th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 95th percentile

Matching its talent (−4)

2026 East Carolina

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 43rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 42nd percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

Campus distance

605 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Alabama OL vs 2026 East Carolina DL	309.5 lbs	263.3 lbs
2026 East Carolina OL vs 2026 Alabama DL	294.4 lbs	292.1 lbs

2026 Alabama line yards 3.23 · 2026 East Carolina stuff rate 29.9%

2026 East Carolina line yards 2.69 · 2026 Alabama stuff rate 25.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

Alabama has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Alabama 48–10 East Carolina	Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home

Coaching & program context

2026 Alabama

Kalen DeBoer

Ryan Grubb

career average +34.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Run and Gun (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 33rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 33rd percentile)

Kane Wommack
Maurice Linguist (co-DC)

career average +21.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5, Swarm (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 East Carolina

Blake Harrell

Jordan Davis

career average +36.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.4 plays a game, 21st percentile)

Jordon Hankins
Roy Tesh (co-DC)

career average +28.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.