Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
3–2
at
UAB
3–3
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL
Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Birmingham · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
66%
East Carolina win probability
UAB 34%
East Carolina by 5.9
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · East Carolina's case
East Carolina's defense is in the 90th percentile for allowed per play this season. UAB's offense is in the 15th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · UAB's answer
UAB's defense is in the 48th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play this season. East Carolina's offense is in the 20th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
East Carolina's leading passer has thrown 52% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Emory Williams · 52% of charted pass attempts
76 of 77 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 65 short · 11 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (51%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.3 over 16 attempts with a result.
The East Carolina offense in 2026
QB · 4 games
50/77 · 65% season
Last game
Rice · Oct 10, 2026: 19/31, 143 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Rice · Oct 10, 2026: 14 carries, 136 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Rice · Oct 10, 2026: 6 rec, 68 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emory WilliamsQB | 4 | 50 / 77 | 529 | 6.9 | 5 | 1 |
| Mitch GriffisQB | 5 | 38 / 70 | 424 | 6.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Jason DickersonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyler PearsonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | −2 | −2.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryder BurtonQB | 6 | 72 / 130 | 922 | 7.1 | 4 | 5 |
| Nate RogersQB | 3 | 1 / 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
East Carolina's line averages 294.4 lbs against UAB's 282.9 lbs front — an edge of 11.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| East Carolina OLEast Carolina OL vs UAB DL | 294.4 lbs | 282.9 lbs |
| UAB OLUAB OL vs East Carolina DL | 315.0 lbs | 263.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
East Carolina: solid line, circles · UAB: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 75 recorded plays
W 28–12
32%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 33 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 42–9
70%
Success rate
0.87
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 67 recorded plays
W 20–17
28%
Success rate
−0.28
PPA / play
Jordan Davis
career +36.4 SP+ offense
Jordon Hankins
career +28.3 SP+ defense
Roy Tesh
Co-defensive coordinator · career +28.3 SP+ defense
Alex Mortensen
no career rating on file
2013 · East Carolina 63, UAB 14
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2012 · East Carolina 42, UAB 35
Legion Field
2011 · East Carolina 28, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2010 · East Carolina 54, UAB 42
Legion Field
2009 · East Carolina 37, UAB 21
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2008 · East Carolina 17, UAB 13
Legion Field
2007 · East Carolina 41, UAB 6
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2006 · UAB 17, East Carolina 12
Legion Field
2005 · East Carolina 31, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2002 · UAB 36, East Carolina 29
Legion Field
2000 · UAB 16, East Carolina 13
Evidence window: 2026 season to date