Saturday, November 7
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7–1 · AP #4
vs
Miami
8–0 · AP #1
7:30 PM ETNotre Dame StadiumNotre Dame, IN
Partly cloudy41°FNW 3 mphGusts 9 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM ET · Updated 1:29 PM ET · National Weather Service
Notre Dame · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy41°FNW 3 mphGusts 9 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Scheduled game
Overview
68%
Notre Dame win probability
Miami 32%
Notre Dame by 6.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.7 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
01 · Notre Dame's case
Notre Dame's defense was in the 94th percentile for allowed per play last season. Miami's offense was in the 76th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Miami's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against Notre Dame's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Notre Dame a 68% chance to win and predicts Notre Dame by 6.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.7 points.
See the forecastMatchups
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
CJ Carr · 91% of charted pass attempts
287 of 294 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 232 short · 55 deep · 7 not stated
Notre Dame's line averages 312.7 lbs against Miami's 263.5 lbs front — an edge of 49.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame OLNotre Dame OL vs Miami DL | 312.7 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
| Miami OLMiami OL vs Notre Dame DL | 318.7 lbs | 279.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
Notre Dame line yards 3.25 · Miami stuff rate 18.9%
Miami line yards 3.69 · Notre Dame stuff rate 21.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
The Notre Dame offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
195/293 · 67% season
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 17/27, 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 14 carries, 66 yds, 1 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 68 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. CarrQB | 12 | 195 / 293 | 2,741 | 9.4 | 24 | 6 |
| Kenny MincheyQB | 5 | 20 / 26 | 196 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan FaisonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua BurnhamDL | 1 | 1 / 1 | 84 | 84.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 16 games in this window · 16 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson BeckQB | 16 | 338 / 468 | 3,813 | 8.1 | 30 | 12 |
| Emory WilliamsQB | 4 | 13 / 19 | 156 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi ToneyWR | 5 | 4 / 7 | 82 | 11.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke NickelQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr.RB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Notre Dame: solid line, circles · Miami: dashed line, squares
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 47 recorded plays
W 49–20
49%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 12 recorded plays
W 70–7
67%
Success rate
1.11
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 63 recorded plays
W 37–15
43%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
2026 Notre Dame
OC
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.1 plays a game, 62nd percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
2026 Miami
OC
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.1 plays a game, 71st percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
2025 · Miami 27, Notre Dame 24
Hard Rock Stadium
2017 · Miami 41, Notre Dame 8
Hard Rock Stadium
2016 · Notre Dame 30, Miami 27
Notre Dame Stadium
2012 · Notre Dame 41, Miami 3
2010 · Notre Dame 33, Miami 17
Neutral site · Sun Bowl
1,140 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence window: 2025 full season
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