01 · Notre Dame's case
Notre Dame's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
Notre Dame's offense is in the 99th percentile for per play this season. Miami's defense is in the 59th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ballSaturday, November 7
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Notre Dame
7–1 · AP #4
vs
Miami
8–0 · AP #1
7:30 PM ETNotre Dame StadiumNotre Dame, IN
Weather
Partly cloudy42°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM ET · Updated 12:15 PM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Notre Dame · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy42°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Scheduled game
Overview
Game forecast
68%
Notre Dame win probability
Miami 32%
Notre Dame by 6.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.7 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
Why this number
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
The game in a minute
02 · Miami's answer
Miami's offense leads its matchup in
Miami's offense is in the 99th percentile for success rate this season. Notre Dame's defense is in the 78th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Notre Dame a 68% chance to win and predicts Notre Dame by 6.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.7 points.
See the forecastMatchups
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Notre Dame has the ball
- Notre Dame offense
- 99th
- Miami defense
- 59th
Show the underlying numbers
- Notre Dame offensive PPA per play
- 0.3599th percentile · #3 nationally
- Miami PPA allowed per play
- 0.0559th percentile · #53 nationally
- Notre Dame success rate
- 51%98th percentile · #4 nationally
- Miami success rate allowed
- 39%68th percentile · #45 nationally
- Notre Dame points per game
- 40.496th percentile · #5 nationally
- Miami per game
- 17.885th percentile · #21 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
Notre Dame offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.19
- Rush success
- 50.7%
Miami defense · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.31
- Rush success allowed
- 35.2%
When Miami has the ball
- Miami offense
- 100th
- Notre Dame defense
- 80th
Show the underlying numbers
- Miami offensive PPA per play
- 0.39100th percentile · #1 nationally
- Notre Dame PPA allowed per play
- −0.0180th percentile · #27 nationally
- Miami success rate
- 52%99th percentile · #2 nationally
- Notre Dame success rate allowed
- 37%78th percentile · #31 nationally
- Miami points per game
- 47.6100th percentile · #1 nationally
- Notre Dame points allowed per game
- 13.496th percentile · #5 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Miami offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.31
- Rush success
- 48.2%
Notre Dame defense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.13
- Rush success allowed
- 33.6%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
CJ Carr · 71% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 41%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 39 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 9.3
- over 39 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 67%
- over 39 attempts with a result
94 of 95 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 8 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 8 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 74 short · 20 deep · 1 not stated
In the trenches
Notre Dame's line averages 312.7 lbs against Miami's 263.5 lbs front — an edge of 49.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame OLNotre Dame OL vs Miami DL | 312.7 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
| Miami OLMiami OL vs Notre Dame DL | 318.7 lbs | 279.7 lbs |
- Notre Dame
- Miami
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
Notre Dame line yards 3.25 · Miami stuff rate 18.9%
Miami line yards 3.69 · Notre Dame stuff rate 21.1%
What the backtest says about line size
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
Who's driving the offense?
The Notre Dame offense in 2026
CJ Carr
QB · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
148/222 · 67% season
- Passing yards
- 1,849
- Touchdowns
- 18
- Interception
- 1
Last game
Navy · Oct 31, 2026: 19/29, 210 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Nolan James Jr.
RB · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 90
- Rushing yards
- 519
- Touchdowns
- 8
Last game
Navy · Oct 31, 2026: 9 carries, 107 yds, 2 TD
Jordan Faison
WR · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 38
- Receiving yards
- 497
- Touchdowns
- 4
Last game
Navy · Oct 31, 2026: 4 rec, 46 yds, 0 TD
Notre Dame player tables
Who is producing
Notre Dame player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. CarrQB | 8 | 148 / 222 | 1,849 | 8.3 | 18 | 1 |
| Noah GrubbsQB | 4 | 15 / 23 | 176 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Teddy JarrardQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Miami player tables
Who is producing
Miami player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian MensahQB | 8 | 188 / 233 | 2,425 | 10.4 | 25 | 1 |
| Luke NickelQB | 3 | 15 / 20 | 204 | 10.2 | 3 | 1 |
| Dereon ColemanQB | 1 | 5 / 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Notre Dame
- overall
- +25.2 · 3rd of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 40.4#5 nationally · 96th percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 13.4#5 nationally · 96th percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 51% of 2025 PPA returns · 61st percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 0% · 113 of 113 with a class year
Miami
- SP+ overall
- +24.7 · 5th of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 47.6#1 nationally · 100th percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 17.8#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 37% of 2025 PPA returns · 45th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 0% · 119 of 119 with a class year
Recruiting
Notre Dame
- 2026 signing class · #5 nationally
- 97th percentile · 299.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #6 nationally
- 96th percentile · 1.88 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #6 nationally
- 96th percentile · 953.0
Miami
- 2026 signing class · #9 nationally
- 94th percentile · 284.6 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #9 nationally
- 94th percentile · 1.76 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #12 nationally
- 92nd percentile · 885.9
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Notre Dame Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.5, 99th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Miami Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.9, 100th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Notre Dame Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.7, 95th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Miami Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.6, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Notre Dame Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 81st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Miami Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 81st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Notre Dame Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 299.3 pts, 97th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Miami Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts, 94th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Notre Dame Experience · returning production 2026: 51% returning, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Miami Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 45th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Notre Dame: solid line, circles · Miami: dashed line, squares
Notre Dame
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 39.5 · 99th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 14.7 · 95th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.4 · 81st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 299.3 pts · 97th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 51% returning · 61st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Miami
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 40.9 · 100th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 16.6 · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.4 · 81st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 284.6 pts · 94th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 37% returning · 45th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
2026 Notre Dame2026 Miami
Momentum
Notre Dame→ steady (+3 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Miami→ steady (+4 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
2026 Notre Dame
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 98th percentile
Matching its talent (+4)
2026 Miami
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 95th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 97th percentile
Matching its talent (+2)
Notre Dame's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 31 · 60 recorded plays
vs Navy · neutral site
W 35–13
55%
Success rate
0.43
PPA / play
Oct 17 · 79 recorded plays
at BYU
L 24–28
39%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Oct 10 · 35 recorded plays
vs Stanford
W 58–7
49%
Success rate
0.69
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Notre Dame
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
Miami
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
What the backtest says about coordinator changes
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Coaching and team identity
2026 Notre Dame
OC
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.1 plays a game, 62nd percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
2026 Miami
OC
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.1 plays a game, 71st percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Head-to-head
Notre Dame leads 3–2 since 2000
2025 · Miami 27, Notre Dame 24
Hard Rock Stadium
2017 · Miami 41, Notre Dame 8
Hard Rock Stadium
2016 · Notre Dame 30, Miami 27
Notre Dame Stadium
2012 · Notre Dame 41, Miami 3
2010 · Notre Dame 33, Miami 17
Neutral site · Sun Bowl
Additional context
Home-stadium distance
1,140 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- Notre Dame: 8 games
- Miami: 8 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot, and line yards and stuff rate for the 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Program trends: SP+ by season, 2000 through 2026 · each season compared with its FBS teams · CFBD
- Talent and results: recruiting classes and SP+ results through 2026 · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Coaching and team identity: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · Wikipedia (schemes) and CFBD (style)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
- Home-stadium distance: home-stadium coordinates · this game · CFBD
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