01 · Tennessee's case
Tennessee's offense leads its matchup in
Tennessee's offense was in the 98th percentile for success rate last season. Kentucky's defense was in the 29th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, November 7
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Tennessee
6–2 · AP #16
vs
Kentucky
7–1 · AP #8
6:15 PM ETNeyland StadiumKnoxville, TN
Weather
Clear53°FN 6 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 6:15 PM ET · Updated 1:56 PM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Knoxville · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear53°FN 6 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Scheduled game
Overview
Game forecast
70%
Tennessee win probability
Kentucky 30%
Tennessee by 7.3
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
Why this number
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
The game in a minute
02 · Kentucky's answer
Kentucky's offense leads its matchup in success rate
Kentucky's offense was in the 57th percentile for success rate last season. Tennessee's defense was in the 18th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Tennessee a 70% chance to win and predicts Tennessee by 7.3 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastMatchups
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Tennessee has the ball
- Tennessee offense
- 95th
- Kentucky defense
- 40th
Show the underlying numbers
- Tennessee offensive per play
- 0.3295th percentile · #8 nationally
- Kentucky PPA allowed per play
- 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
- Tennessee success rate
- 50%98th percentile · #4 nationally
- Kentucky success rate allowed
- 44%29th percentile · #96 nationally
- Tennessee points per game
- 39.896th percentile · #6 nationally
- Kentucky per game
- 26.445th percentile · #75 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Tennessee offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.25
- Rush success
- 49.6%
Kentucky defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.24
- Rush success allowed
- 45.5%
When Kentucky has the ball
- Kentucky offense
- 19th
- Tennessee defense
- 50th
Show the underlying numbers
- Kentucky offensive PPA per play
- 0.0919th percentile · #109 nationally
- Tennessee PPA allowed per play
- 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
- Kentucky success rate
- 43%57th percentile · #59 nationally
- Tennessee success rate allowed
- 45%18th percentile · #112 nationally
- Kentucky points per game
- 23.025th percentile · #101 nationally
- Tennessee points allowed per game
- 28.832nd percentile · #92 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Kentucky offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.16
- Rush success
- 41.7%
Tennessee defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.26
- Rush success allowed
- 46.4%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Joey Aguilar · 92% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 43%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 163 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 8.2
- over 162 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 66%
- over 162 attempts with a result
377 of 387 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 333 short · 44 deep · 10 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.6 over 108 attempts with a result.
In the trenches
Tennessee's line averages 317.9 lbs against Kentucky's 285.8 lbs front — an edge of 32.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee OLTennessee OL vs Kentucky DL | 317.9 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| Kentucky OLKentucky OL vs Tennessee DL | 320.2 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
Tennessee line yards 3.27 · Kentucky stuff rate 18.4%
Kentucky line yards 3.28 · Tennessee stuff rate 19.6%
What the backtest says about line size
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
Who's driving the offense?
The Tennessee offense in 2025
Joey Aguilar
QB · 13 games
272/404 · 67% season
- Passing yards
- 3,565
- Touchdowns
- 24
- Interceptions
- 10
Last game
Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 14/18, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
DeSean Bishop
RB · 13 games
- Carries
- 182
- Rushing yards
- 1,076
- Touchdowns
- 16
Last game
Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 19 carries, 93 yds, 2 TD
Braylon Staley
WR · 13 games
- Receptions
- 68
- Receiving yards
- 837
- Touchdowns
- 6
Last game
Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 4 rec, 31 yds, 0 TD
Tennessee player tables
Who is producing
Tennessee player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey AguilarQB | 13 | 272 / 404 | 3,565 | 8.8 | 24 | 10 |
| Jake MerklingerQB | 3 | 13 / 24 | 173 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 |
| George MacIntyreQB | 2 | 7 / 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kentucky player tables
Who is producing
Kentucky player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter BoleyQB | 11 | 198 / 301 | 2,160 | 7.2 | 15 | 12 |
| Zach CalzadaQB | 3 | 28 / 58 | 238 | 4.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brennen WardQB | 1 | 3 / 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick LawWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Tennessee
- overall
- +15.0 · 19th of 136 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 39.8#6 nationally · 96th percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 28.8#92 nationally · 32nd percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 19th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 35% · 110 of 110 with a class year
Kentucky
- SP+ overall
- +1.8 · 66th of 136 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 23.0#101 nationally · 25th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 26.4#75 nationally · 45th percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 27% of 2024 PPA returns · 26th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 42% · 114 of 114 with a class year
Recruiting
Tennessee
- 2025 signing class · #11 nationally
- 93rd percentile · 277.9 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #12 nationally
- 92nd percentile · 1.54 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #16 nationally
- 89th percentile · 866.6
Kentucky
- 2025 signing class · #29 nationally
- 79th percentile · 224.0 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #23 nationally
- 84th percentile · 0.82 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #27 nationally
- 80th percentile · 763.2
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2025: 39.3, 95th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kentucky Offense · SP+ 2025: 25.5, 41st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.4, 54th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kentucky Defense · SP+ 2025: 23.7, 64th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1, 74th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Kentucky Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.0, 44th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Tennessee Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 277.9 pts, 93rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Kentucky Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 224.0 pts, 79th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Tennessee Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning, 19th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Kentucky Experience · returning production 2025: 27% returning, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Tennessee: solid line, circles · Kentucky: dashed line, squares
Tennessee
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 39.3 · 95th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 25.4 · 54th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 1.1 · 74th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 277.9 pts · 93rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 22% returning · 19th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Kentucky
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 25.5 · 41st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 23.7 · 64th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 0.0 · 44th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 224.0 pts · 79th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 27% returning · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
2026 Tennessee2026 Kentucky
Momentum
Tennessee→ steady (−1 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Kentucky↗ rising (+12 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
2026 Tennessee
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 93rd percentile
Matching its talent (0)
2026 Kentucky
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
Matching its talent (+4)
Tennessee's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 30
vs Illinois · neutral site
L 28–30
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 77 recorded plays
vs Vanderbilt
L 24–45
44%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 66 recorded plays
at Florida
W 31–11
65%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Tennessee
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
Kentucky
- Head coach
Will Stein
First season as Kentucky's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
- Offensive coordinator
Joe Sloan
career +36.8 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Jay Bateman
career +30.5 SP+ defense
What the backtest says about coordinator changes
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Coaching and team identity
2026 Tennessee
OC
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.8 plays a game, 76th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
2026 Kentucky
OC
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.5 plays a game, 37th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Head-to-head
Tennessee leads 23–3 since 2000
2025 · Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34
Kroger Field
2024 · Tennessee 28, Kentucky 18
Neyland Stadium
2023 · Tennessee 33, Kentucky 27
Kroger Field
2022 · Tennessee 44, Kentucky 6
Neyland Stadium
2021 · Tennessee 45, Kentucky 42
Kroger Field
2020 · Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7
Neyland Stadium
2019 · Tennessee 17, Kentucky 13
Kroger Field
2018 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7
Neyland Stadium
2017 · Kentucky 29, Tennessee 26
Kroger Field
2016 · Tennessee 49, Kentucky 36
Neyland Stadium
2015 · Tennessee 52, Kentucky 21
Kroger Field
2014 · Tennessee 50, Kentucky 16
Neyland Stadium
2013 · Tennessee 27, Kentucky 14
Kroger Field
2012 · Tennessee 37, Kentucky 17
Neyland Stadium
2011 · Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7
Kroger Field
2010 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 14
Neyland Stadium
2009 · Tennessee 30, Kentucky 24
Kroger Field
2008 · Tennessee 28, Kentucky 10
Neyland Stadium
2007 · Tennessee 52, Kentucky 50
Kroger Field
2006 · Tennessee 17, Kentucky 12
Neyland Stadium
2005 · Tennessee 27, Kentucky 8
Kroger Field
2004 · Tennessee 37, Kentucky 31
Neyland Stadium
2003 · Tennessee 20, Kentucky 7
Kroger Field
2002 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 0
Neyland Stadium
2001 · Tennessee 38, Kentucky 35
Kroger Field
2000 · Tennessee 59, Kentucky 20
Additional context
Home-stadium distance
145 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Tennessee: 13 games
- Kentucky: 12 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot, and line yards and stuff rate for the 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Program trends: SP+ by season, 2000 through 2026 · each season compared with its FBS teams · CFBD
- Talent and results: recruiting classes and SP+ results through 2026 · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Coaching and team identity: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · Wikipedia (schemes) and CFBD (style)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
- Home-stadium distance: home-stadium coordinates · this game · CFBD
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