01 · Tennessee's case
Tennessee's offense leads its matchup in
Tennessee's offense is in the 67th percentile for success rate this season. Kentucky's defense is in the 23rd percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, November 7
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Tennessee
6–2 · AP #16
vs
Kentucky
7–1 · AP #8
6:15 PM ETNeyland StadiumKnoxville, TN
Weather
Clear53°FN 6 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 6:15 PM ET · Updated 1:56 PM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Knoxville · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear53°FN 6 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Scheduled game
Overview
Game forecast
70%
Tennessee win probability
Kentucky 30%
Tennessee by 7.3
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
Why this number
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
The game in a minute
02 · Kentucky's answer
Kentucky has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its defense's numbers stands out against Tennessee's offense.
03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Tennessee a 70% chance to win and predicts Tennessee by 7.3 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastMatchups
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Tennessee has the ball
- Tennessee offense
- 60th
- Kentucky defense
- 63rd
Show the underlying numbers
- Tennessee offensive per play
- 0.1660th percentile · #54 nationally
- Kentucky PPA allowed per play
- 0.0463rd percentile · #47 nationally
- Tennessee success rate
- 45%67th percentile · #46 nationally
- Kentucky success rate allowed
- 43%23rd percentile · #106 nationally
- Tennessee points per game
- 32.367th percentile · #46 nationally
- Kentucky per game
- 24.850th percentile · #70 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
Tennessee offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.12
- Rush success
- 47.1%
Kentucky defense · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.23
- Rush success allowed
- 43.5%
When Kentucky has the ball
- Kentucky offense
- 74th
- Tennessee defense
- 96th
Show the underlying numbers
- Kentucky offensive PPA per play
- 0.2174th percentile · #35 nationally
- Tennessee PPA allowed per play
- −0.0896th percentile · #7 nationally
- Kentucky success rate
- 49%89th percentile · #16 nationally
- Tennessee success rate allowed
- 38%77th percentile · #33 nationally
- Kentucky points per game
- 32.972nd percentile · #40 nationally
- Tennessee points allowed per game
- 16.388th percentile · #17 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Kentucky offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.13
- Rush success
- 51.3%
Tennessee defense · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.09
- Rush success allowed
- 40.0%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Faizon Brandon · 72% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 39%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 36 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 7.2
- over 36 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 64%
- over 36 attempts with a result
93 of 93 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 8 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 8 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 79 short · 14 deep · 0 not stated
In the trenches
Tennessee's line averages 317.9 lbs against Kentucky's 285.8 lbs front — an edge of 32.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee OLTennessee OL vs Kentucky DL | 317.9 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| Kentucky OLKentucky OL vs Tennessee DL | 320.2 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
Tennessee line yards 3.27 · Kentucky stuff rate 18.4%
Kentucky line yards 3.28 · Tennessee stuff rate 19.6%
What the backtest says about line size
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
Who's driving the offense?
The Tennessee offense in 2026
Faizon Brandon
QB · 5 games
61/101 · 60% season
- Passing yards
- 697
- Touchdowns
- 7
- Interception
- 1
Last game
Auburn · Oct 3, 2026: 3/8, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
DeSean Bishop
RB · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 171
- Rushing yards
- 957
- Touchdowns
- 11
Last game
South Carolina · Oct 24, 2026: 32 carries, 120 yds, 1 TD
Mike Matthews
WR · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 34
- Receiving yards
- 528
- Touchdowns
- 3
Last game
South Carolina · Oct 24, 2026: 5 rec, 47 yds, 0 TD
Tennessee player tables
Who is producing
Tennessee player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George MacIntyreQB | 6 | 69 / 103 | 728 | 7.1 | 2 | 3 |
| Faizon BrandonQB | 5 | 61 / 101 | 697 | 6.9 | 7 | 1 |
| Ryan StaubQB | 1 | 3 / 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kentucky player tables
Who is producing
Kentucky player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny MincheyQB | 8 | 160 / 232 | 1,755 | 7.6 | 14 | 1 |
| Callum WitherQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Tennessee
- overall
- +17.9 · 11th of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 32.3#46 nationally · 67th percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 16.3#17 nationally · 88th percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 35% of 2025 PPA returns · 41st percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 0% · 114 of 114 with a class year
Kentucky
- SP+ overall
- +10.6 · 31st of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 32.9#40 nationally · 72nd percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 24.8#70 nationally · 50th percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 19% of 2025 PPA returns · 26th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 3% · 115 of 115 with a class year
Recruiting
Tennessee
- 2026 signing class · #8 nationally
- 95th percentile · 290.7 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #8 nationally
- 95th percentile · 1.82 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #13 nationally
- 91st percentile · 885.9
Kentucky
- 2026 signing class · #60 nationally
- 57th percentile · 197.2 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #39 nationally
- 72nd percentile · 0.45 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #23 nationally
- 84th percentile · 786.6
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.4, 88th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Kentucky Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.3, 81st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.9, 88th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Kentucky Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3, 73rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 93rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Kentucky Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 19th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 290.7 pts, 95th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Kentucky Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 197.2 pts, 57th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Kentucky Experience · returning production 2026: 19% returning, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Tennessee: solid line, circles · Kentucky: dashed line, squares
Tennessee
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 34.4 · 88th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 16.9 · 88th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.5 · 93rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 290.7 pts · 95th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 35% returning · 41st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Kentucky
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 33.3 · 81st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 22.3 · 73rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.3 · 19th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 197.2 pts · 57th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 19% returning · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
2026 Tennessee2026 Kentucky
Momentum
Tennessee→ steady (−1 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Kentucky↗ rising (+12 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
2026 Tennessee
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 93rd percentile
Matching its talent (0)
2026 Kentucky
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
Matching its talent (+4)
Tennessee's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 24 · 74 recorded plays
at South Carolina
L 24–27
46%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Oct 17 · 74 recorded plays
vs Alabama
W 26–10
45%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Oct 10 · 63 recorded plays
at Arkansas
W 24–17
44%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Tennessee
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
Kentucky
- Head coach
Will Stein
First season as Kentucky's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
- Offensive coordinator
Joe Sloan
career +36.8 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Jay Bateman
career +30.5 SP+ defense
What the backtest says about coordinator changes
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Coaching and team identity
2026 Tennessee
OC
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.8 plays a game, 76th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
2026 Kentucky
OC
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.5 plays a game, 37th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Head-to-head
Tennessee leads 23–3 since 2000
2025 · Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34
Kroger Field
2024 · Tennessee 28, Kentucky 18
Neyland Stadium
2023 · Tennessee 33, Kentucky 27
Kroger Field
2022 · Tennessee 44, Kentucky 6
Neyland Stadium
2021 · Tennessee 45, Kentucky 42
Kroger Field
2020 · Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7
Neyland Stadium
2019 · Tennessee 17, Kentucky 13
Kroger Field
2018 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7
Neyland Stadium
2017 · Kentucky 29, Tennessee 26
Kroger Field
2016 · Tennessee 49, Kentucky 36
Neyland Stadium
2015 · Tennessee 52, Kentucky 21
Kroger Field
2014 · Tennessee 50, Kentucky 16
Neyland Stadium
2013 · Tennessee 27, Kentucky 14
Kroger Field
2012 · Tennessee 37, Kentucky 17
Neyland Stadium
2011 · Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7
Kroger Field
2010 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 14
Neyland Stadium
2009 · Tennessee 30, Kentucky 24
Kroger Field
2008 · Tennessee 28, Kentucky 10
Neyland Stadium
2007 · Tennessee 52, Kentucky 50
Kroger Field
2006 · Tennessee 17, Kentucky 12
Neyland Stadium
2005 · Tennessee 27, Kentucky 8
Kroger Field
2004 · Tennessee 37, Kentucky 31
Neyland Stadium
2003 · Tennessee 20, Kentucky 7
Kroger Field
2002 · Tennessee 24, Kentucky 0
Neyland Stadium
2001 · Tennessee 38, Kentucky 35
Kroger Field
2000 · Tennessee 59, Kentucky 20
Additional context
Home-stadium distance
145 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- Tennessee: 8 games
- Kentucky: 8 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot, and line yards and stuff rate for the 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Program trends: SP+ by season, 2000 through 2026 · each season compared with its FBS teams · CFBD
- Talent and results: recruiting classes and SP+ results through 2026 · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Coaching and team identity: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · Wikipedia (schemes) and CFBD (style)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
- Home-stadium distance: home-stadium coordinates · this game · CFBD
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