01 · UAB's case
UAB's offense leads its matchup in
UAB's offense was in the 58th percentile for success rate last season. Charlotte's defense was in the 0th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, November 7
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UAB
4–4
vs
Charlotte
1–7
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL
Weather
Partly cloudy64°FN 12 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 12:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Birmingham · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy64°FN 12 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Scheduled game
Overview
Game forecast
83%
UAB win probability
Charlotte 17%
UAB by 13.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
Why this number
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
The game in a minute
02 · Charlotte's answer
Charlotte has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its defense's numbers stood out against UAB's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives UAB a 83% chance to win and predicts UAB by 13.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastMatchups
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When UAB has the ball
- UAB offense
- 56th
- Charlotte defense
- 15th
Show the underlying numbers
- UAB offensive per play
- 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
- Charlotte PPA allowed per play
- 0.2315th percentile · #115 nationally
- UAB success rate
- 43%58th percentile · #58 nationally
- Charlotte success rate allowed
- 52%0th percentile · #136 nationally
- UAB points per game
- 26.444th percentile · #77 nationally
- Charlotte per game
- 36.33rd percentile · #131 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
UAB offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.35
- Rush success
- 41.5%
Charlotte defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.07
- Rush success allowed
- 58.1%
When Charlotte has the ball
- Charlotte offense
- 1st
- UAB defense
- 1st
Show the underlying numbers
- Charlotte offensive PPA per play
- −0.011st percentile · #134 nationally
- UAB PPA allowed per play
- 0.321st percentile · #135 nationally
- Charlotte success rate
- 35%5th percentile · #129 nationally
- UAB success rate allowed
- 49%2nd percentile · #133 nationally
- Charlotte points per game
- 14.32nd percentile · #133 nationally
- UAB points allowed per game
- 38.31st percentile · #135 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Charlotte offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.26
- Rush success
- 29.2%
UAB defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.28
- Rush success allowed
- 45.9%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jalen Kitna · 77% of charted pass attempts
Throwing over the middle
- Share of charted plays
- 37%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 119 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 9.3
- over 119 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 67%
- over 119 attempts with a result
326 of 335 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 295 short · 31 deep · 9 not stated
In the trenches
UAB's line averages 315.0 lbs against Charlotte's 260.5 lbs front — an edge of 54.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| UAB OLUAB OL vs Charlotte DL | 315.0 lbs | 260.5 lbs |
| Charlotte OLCharlotte OL vs UAB DL | 302.8 lbs | 281.3 lbs |
- UAB
- Charlotte
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
UAB line yards 2.93 · Charlotte stuff rate 19.2%
Charlotte line yards 2.45 · UAB stuff rate 12.6%
What the backtest says about line size
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
Who's driving the offense?
The UAB offense in 2025
Jalen Kitna
QB · 10 games
223/337 · 66% season
- Passing yards
- 2,462
- Touchdowns
- 13
- Interceptions
- 11
Last game
Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 14/17, 166 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Jevon Jackson
RB · 12 games
- Carries
- 167
- Rushing yards
- 900
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 23 carries, 117 yds, 2 TD
Iverson Hooks
WR · 12 games
- Receptions
- 72
- Receiving yards
- 927
- Touchdowns
- 7
Last game
Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 5 rec, 46 yds, 1 TD
UAB player tables
Who is producing
UAB player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen KitnaQB | 10 | 223 / 337 | 2,462 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 |
| Ryder BurtonQB | 7 | 62 / 98 | 708 | 7.2 | 7 | 5 |
| Nate RogersQB | 2 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iverson HooksWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Charlotte player tables
Who is producing
Charlotte player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson LoftisQB | 11 | 128 / 232 | 1,415 | 6.1 | 8 | 8 |
| Conner HarrellQB | 4 | 64 / 96 | 737 | 7.7 | 4 | 2 |
| Zach WilckeQB | 6 | 33 / 51 | 296 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
UAB
- overall
- −15.8 · 125th of 136 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 26.4#77 nationally · 44th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 38.3#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 73% of 2024 PPA returns · 76th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 45% · 106 of 106 with a class year
Charlotte
- SP+ overall
- −26.7 · 134th of 136 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 14.3#133 nationally · 2nd percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 36.3#131 nationally · 3rd percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 24% of 2024 PPA returns · 20th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 53% · 109 of 109 with a class year
Recruiting
UAB
- 2025 signing class · #125 nationally
- 8th percentile · 98.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #113 nationally
- 17th percentile · −0.85 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #103 nationally
- 23rd percentile · 540.9
Charlotte
- 2025 signing class · #133 nationally
- 2nd percentile · 38.6 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #126 nationally
- 7th percentile · −1.44 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #108 nationally
- 20th percentile · 526.3
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- UAB Offense · SP+ 2025: 25.5, 41st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Charlotte Offense · SP+ 2025: 14.5, 3rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- UAB Defense · SP+ 2025: 39.8, 2nd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Charlotte Defense · SP+ 2025: 39.8, 2nd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- UAB Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5, 10th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Charlotte Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4, 15th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- UAB Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 98.3 pts, 8th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Charlotte Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 38.6 pts, 2nd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- UAB Experience · returning production 2025: 73% returning, 76th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Charlotte Experience · returning production 2025: 24% returning, 20th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
UAB: solid line, circles · Charlotte: dashed line, squares
UAB
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 25.5 · 41st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 39.8 · 2nd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −1.5 · 10th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 98.3 pts · 8th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 73% returning · 76th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Charlotte
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 14.5 · 3rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 39.8 · 2nd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −1.4 · 15th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 38.6 pts · 2nd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 24% returning · 20th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
2026 UAB2026 Charlotte
Momentum
UAB→ steady (+1 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Charlotte↘ falling (−11 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
2026 UAB
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 17th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 20th percentile
Matching its talent (+3)
2026 Charlotte
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 19th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 1st percentile
Underperforming its talent (−18)
UAB's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 74 recorded plays
at Tulsa
W 31–24
42%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 65 recorded plays
vs South Florida
L 18–48
38%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 72 recorded plays
vs North Texas
L 24–53
44%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
The coaching staff
UAB
- Head coach
Alex Mortensen
no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
Charlotte
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
Todd Fitch
career +24.7 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Nate Faanes
career +31.8 SP+ defense
What the backtest says about coordinator changes
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Coaching and team identity
2026 UAB
OC
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
2026 Charlotte
OC
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.4 plays a game, 8th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Head-to-head
Series tied 2–2 since 2000
2024 · Charlotte 29, UAB 27
Jerry Richardson Stadium
2022 · UAB 34, Charlotte 20
Protective Stadium
2018 · UAB 28, Charlotte 7
Legion Field
2017 · Charlotte 25, UAB 24
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Additional context
Home-stadium distance
365 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- UAB: 12 games
- Charlotte: 12 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot, and line yards and stuff rate for the 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Program trends: SP+ by season, 2000 through 2026 · each season compared with its FBS teams · CFBD
- Talent and results: recruiting classes and SP+ results through 2026 · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Coaching and team identity: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · Wikipedia (schemes) and CFBD (style)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
- Home-stadium distance: home-stadium coordinates · this game · CFBD
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