01 · UAB's case
UAB's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
UAB's defense is in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play this season. Charlotte's offense is in the 8th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ballSaturday, November 7
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UAB
4–4
vs
Charlotte
1–7
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL
Weather
Partly cloudy64°FN 12 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 11:21 AM CT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Birmingham · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy64°FN 12 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Scheduled game
Overview
Game forecast
83%
UAB win probability
Charlotte 17%
UAB by 13.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
Why this number
This is our published forecast for this game. It comes from each team's SBR rating and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment (none at a neutral site).
The win chance also allows for how sure we are of each team's rating.
A breakdown of this published number isn't available: we don't save the ratings it was calculated from alongside the forecast.
The game in a minute
02 · Charlotte's answer
Charlotte has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its offense's numbers stands out against UAB's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives UAB a 83% chance to win and predicts UAB by 13.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastMatchups
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When UAB has the ball
- UAB offense
- 15th
- Charlotte defense
- 3rd
Show the underlying numbers
- UAB offensive PPA per play
- 0.0215th percentile · #114 nationally
- Charlotte PPA allowed per play
- 0.253rd percentile · #131 nationally
- UAB
- 40%26th percentile · #103 nationally
- Charlotte success rate allowed
- 49%2nd percentile · #135 nationally
- UAB points per game
- 21.619th percentile · #111 nationally
- Charlotte per game
- 40.31st percentile · #137 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
UAB offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.21
- Rush success
- 42.3%
Charlotte defense · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.22
- Rush success allowed
- 46.7%
When Charlotte has the ball
- Charlotte offense
- 8th
- UAB defense
- 73rd
Show the underlying numbers
- Charlotte offensive PPA per play
- −0.018th percentile · #126 nationally
- UAB PPA allowed per play
- 0.0173rd percentile · #34 nationally
- Charlotte success rate
- 37%5th percentile · #131 nationally
- UAB success rate allowed
- 42%36th percentile · #88 nationally
- Charlotte points per game
- 20.613th percentile · #120 nationally
- UAB points allowed per game
- 25.344th percentile · #74 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Charlotte offense · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.25
- Rush success
- 37.6%
UAB defense · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.02
- Rush success allowed
- 45.0%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Ryder Burton · 81% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 39%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 34 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 6.9
- over 34 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 56%
- over 34 attempts with a result
87 of 91 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 8 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 8 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 77 short · 10 deep · 4 not stated
In the trenches
UAB's line averages 315.0 lbs against Charlotte's 260.5 lbs front — an edge of 54.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.0 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| UAB OLUAB OL vs Charlotte DL | 315.0 lbs | 260.5 lbs |
| Charlotte OLCharlotte OL vs UAB DL | 302.8 lbs | 281.3 lbs |
- UAB
- Charlotte
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
UAB line yards 2.93 · Charlotte stuff rate 19.2%
Charlotte line yards 2.45 · UAB stuff rate 12.6%
What the backtest says about line size
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Players
Who's driving the offense?
The UAB offense in 2026
Ryder Burton
QB · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
104/194 · 54% season
- Passing yards
- 1,333
- Touchdowns
- 6
- Interceptions
- 5
Last game
South Florida · Oct 31, 2026: 13/27, 149 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Roderick Robinson II
RB · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 108
- Rushing yards
- 450
- Touchdown
- 1
Last game
South Florida · Oct 31, 2026: 7 carries, 14 yds, 1 TD
EJ Reid
WR · 8 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 23
- Receiving yards
- 179
- Touchdown
- 1
Last game
South Florida · Oct 31, 2026: 4 rec, 15 yds, 0 TD
UAB player tables
Who is producing
UAB player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryder BurtonQB | 8 | 104 / 194 | 1,333 | 6.9 | 6 | 5 |
| Nate RogersQB | 4 | 2 / 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Charlotte player tables
Who is producing
Charlotte player production
2026 evidence · 8 games in this window · 8 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole GonzalesQB | 5 | 79 / 127 | 802 | 6.3 | 3 | 7 |
| Conner HarrellQB | 5 | 74 / 108 | 831 | 7.7 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaylen WhiteQB | 4 | 2 / 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Team context
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
UAB
- overall
- −10.4 · 110th of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 21.6#111 nationally · 19th percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 25.3#74 nationally · 44th percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 80% of 2025 PPA returns · 91st percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 21% · 150 of 150 with a class year
Charlotte
- SP+ overall
- −25.4 · 136th of 138 FBS teams
- Points per game
- 20.6#120 nationally · 13th percentile · 8 games
- Points allowed per game
- 40.3#137 nationally · 1st percentile · 8 games
- Returning production
- 41% of 2025 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 0% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Recruiting
UAB
- 2026 signing class · #133 nationally
- 4th percentile · 135.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #126 nationally
- 9th percentile · −1.18 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #92 nationally
- 34th percentile · 606.2
Charlotte
- 2026 signing class · #103 nationally
- 26th percentile · 176.5 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #125 nationally
- 9th percentile · −1.15 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #104 nationally
- 25th percentile · 576.8
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- UAB Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.0, 21st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Charlotte Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.5, 7th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- UAB Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.5, 25th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Charlotte Defense · SP+ 2026: 40.7, 0th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- UAB Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 52nd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Charlotte Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- UAB Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 135.3 pts, 4th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Charlotte Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.5 pts, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- UAB Experience · returning production 2026: 80% returning, 91st percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Charlotte Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning, 53rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
UAB: solid line, circles · Charlotte: dashed line, squares
UAB
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 20.0 · 21st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 30.5 · 25th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.1 · 52nd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 135.3 pts · 4th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 80% returning · 91st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Charlotte
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 15.5 · 7th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 40.7 · 0th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.2 · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 176.5 pts · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 41% returning · 53rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
2026 UAB2026 Charlotte
Momentum
UAB→ steady (+1 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Charlotte↘ falling (−11 percentile points over 3 seasons)
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
2026 UAB
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 17th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 20th percentile
Matching its talent (+3)
2026 Charlotte
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 19th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 1st percentile
Underperforming its talent (−18)
UAB's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 31 · 64 recorded plays
at South Florida
L 10–30
27%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play
Oct 15 · 69 recorded plays
vs East Carolina
W 30–17
36%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Oct 10 · 65 recorded plays
at Memphis
L 13–38
37%
Success rate
−0.28
PPA / play
The coaching staff
UAB
- Head coach
Alex Mortensen
no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
Charlotte
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
Todd Fitch
career +24.7 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Nate Faanes
career +31.8 SP+ defense
What the backtest says about coordinator changes
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Coaching and team identity
2026 UAB
OC
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
2026 Charlotte
OC
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.4 plays a game, 8th percentile)
DC
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Head-to-head
Series tied 2–2 since 2000
2024 · Charlotte 29, UAB 27
Jerry Richardson Stadium
2022 · UAB 34, Charlotte 20
Protective Stadium
2018 · UAB 28, Charlotte 7
Legion Field
2017 · Charlotte 25, UAB 24
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Additional context
Home-stadium distance
365 miles apart
Straight-line distance between the two home stadiums, not travel distance.
Evidence and sharing
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- UAB: 8 games
- Charlotte: 8 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot, and line yards and stuff rate for the 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Program trends: SP+ by season, 2000 through 2026 · each season compared with its FBS teams · CFBD
- Talent and results: recruiting classes and SP+ results through 2026 · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Coaching and team identity: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · Wikipedia (schemes) and CFBD (style)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
- Home-stadium distance: home-stadium coordinates · this game · CFBD
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