Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
5–1 · AP #23
at
Washington State
1–5
6:00 PM ET3:00 PM PTGesa FieldPullman, WA
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · Boise State's case
Boise State's defense was in the 95th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Washington State's offense was in the 42nd percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Washington State's answer
Washington State's defense was in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play last season. Boise State's offense was in the 48th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Maddux Madsen · 64% of charted pass attempts
249 of 254 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 219 short · 30 deep · 5 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (47%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.4 over 61 attempts with a result.
The Boise State offense in 2025
QB · 11 games
176/302 · 58% season
Last game
Washington · Dec 13, 2025: 7/16, 51 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
RB · 14 games
Last game
Washington · Dec 13, 2025: 10 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
Washington · Dec 13, 2025: 5 rec, 70 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux MadsenQB | 11 | 176 / 302 | 2,333 | 7.7 | 18 | 9 |
| Max CutforthQB | 9 | 95 / 167 | 1,059 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 |
| Oscar DoyleP | 2 | 2 / 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Cameron BatesWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zevi EckhausQB | 11 | 192 / 306 | 2,092 | 6.8 | 15 | 12 |
| Jaxon PotterQB | 3 | 67 / 95 | 604 | 6.4 | 4 | 3 |
| Julian DuggerQB | 3 | 2 / 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Boise State's line averages 297.6 lbs against Washington State's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 24.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State OLBoise State OL vs Washington State DL | 297.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| Washington State OLWashington State OL vs Boise State DL | 301.3 lbs | 289.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Boise State: solid line, circles · Washington State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 13
L 10–38
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 71 recorded plays
W 38–21
44%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Nov 28 · 96 recorded plays
W 25–24
38%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Spencer Danielson
career +6.4 SP+ overall
Nate Potter
career +33.3 SP+ offense
Zak Hill
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.3 SP+ offense
Erik Chinander
career +25.7 SP+ defense
Terrence Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.7 SP+ defense
Kirby Moore
First season as Washington State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Bsuorangecrush (talk), Public domain
Matt Miller
career +29.1 SP+ offense
Trent Bray
career +20.0 SP+ defense
2024 · Boise State 45, Washington State 24
Albertsons Stadium
2017 · Washington State 47, Boise State 44
Gesa Field
2016 · Boise State 31, Washington State 28
Albertsons Stadium
2001 · Washington State 41, Boise State 20
Albertsons Stadium
2000 · Washington State 42, Boise State 35
Evidence window: 2025 full season