Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
4–2
at
Navy
2–3
3:30 PM ETNavy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumAnnapolis, MD
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · North Texas's case
North Texas's offense was in the 99th percentile for per play last season. Navy's defense was in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Navy's answer
Navy's offense was in the 94th percentile for success rate last season. North Texas's defense was in the 44th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Drew Mestemaker · 97% of charted pass attempts
378 of 382 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 340 short · 38 deep · 4 not stated
The North Texas offense in 2025
QB · 14 games
319/465 · 69% season
Last game
San Diego State · Dec 27, 2025: 27/47, 250 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
San Diego State · Dec 27, 2025: 31 carries, 198 yds, 2 TD
WR · 14 games
Last game
San Diego State · Dec 27, 2025: 7 rec, 55 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew MestemakerQB | 14 | 319 / 465 | 4,369 | 9.4 | 34 | 9 |
| Reese PoffenbargerQB | 2 | 5 / 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jimerson Jr.QB | 2 | 1 / 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashton GrayRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake HorvathQB | 12 | 97 / 159 | 1,580 | 9.9 | 12 | 6 |
| Braxton WoodsonQB | 4 | 9 / 19 | 110 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson GutierrezQB | 2 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli HeidenreichWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
North Texas's line averages 308.3 lbs against Navy's 267.0 lbs front — an edge of 41.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas OLNorth Texas OL vs Navy DL | 308.3 lbs | 267.0 lbs |
| Navy OLNavy OL vs North Texas DL | 287.8 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
North Texas: solid line, circles · Navy: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
W 49–47
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 69 recorded plays
L 21–34
48%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 28 · 48 recorded plays
W 52–25
69%
Success rate
0.73
PPA / play
Neal Brown
First season as North Texas's head coach · career +1.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Bradley Dale Peveto
Co-defensive coordinator · career +30.5 SP+ defense
Matt Powledge
career +30.5 SP+ defense
Drew Cronic
career +31.6 SP+ offense
Eric Lewis
career +35.2 SP+ defense
2025 · North Texas 31, Navy 17
DATCU Stadium
2023 · Navy 27, North Texas 24
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
2007 · Navy 74, North Texas 62
Evidence window: 2025 full season