Saturday, October 24

UCF

3–3

BYU

5–0 · AP #8

Time TBAFBC Mortgage StadiumOrlando, FL

Weather

Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · UCF's case

No clear statistical strength for UCF

In every matchup we could rate last season, the UCF unit ranked well below the BYU unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · BYU's answer

BYU's defense leads its matchup in

BYU's defense was in the 87th percentile for points allowed per game last season. UCF's offense was in the 34th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UCF has the ball

UCF offense: 39th
BYU defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

UCF offensive per play: 0.1539th percentile · #79 nationally
BYU PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
UCF: 40%26th percentile · #101 nationally
BYU success rate allowed: 39%76th percentile · #33 nationally
UCF points per game: 24.334th percentile · #90 nationally
BYU points allowed per game: 19.187th percentile · #19 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

UCF offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 38.6%

BYU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 38.4%

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense: 76th
UCF defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

BYU offensive PPA per play: 0.2276th percentile · #32 nationally
UCF PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
BYU success rate: 46%81st percentile · #27 nationally
UCF success rate allowed: 42%40th percentile · #82 nationally
BYU points per game: 31.477th percentile · #32 nationally
UCF points allowed per game: 23.659th percentile · #56 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

BYU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 45.2%

UCF defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.10
Rush success allowed: 49.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Tayven Jackson · 78% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 120 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.5; over 118 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 118 attempts with a result

308 of 316 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 269 short · 39 deep · 8 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UCF offense in 2025

Tayven Jackson

QB · 11 games

200/315 · 63% season

Passing yards: 2,151
Touchdowns: 10
Interceptions: 8

Last game

BYU · Nov 29, 2025: 21/37, 232 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Myles Montgomery

RB · 11 games

Carries: 143
Rushing yards: 705
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

BYU · Nov 29, 2025: 7 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD

Duane Thomas Jr.

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 53
Receiving yards: 528
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

BYU · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 74 yds, 0 TD

UCF player tables

Who is producing

UCF player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

UCF — Passing production
Player
Tayven JacksonQB	11	200 / 315	2,151	6.8	10	8
Cam FancherQB	3	41 / 72	333	4.6	0	0
Davi BelfortQB	3	4 / 6	53	8.8	0	1
Jacurri BrownQB	2	3 / 5	97	19.4	1	1
Brock HanselQB	1	1 / 3	11	3.7	0	1
Agyeman AddaeRB	1	1 / 1	4	4.0	1	0
Duane Thomas Jr.WR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

7 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

BYU player tables

Who is producing

BYU player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

BYU — Passing production
Player
Bear BachmeierQB	14	251 / 387	3,033	7.8	15	7
Parker KingstonWR	5	1 / 6	22	3.7	0	0
McCae HillsteadQB	1	4 / 5	33	6.6	0	0
Treyson BourguetQB	1	1 / 2	8	4.0	0	0
Sam Vander HaarP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UCF's line averages 295.7 lbs against BYU's 271.2 lbs front — an edge of 24.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UCF OLUCF OL vs BYU DL	295.7 lbs	271.2 lbs
BYU OLBYU OL vs UCF DL	305.2 lbs	276.0 lbs

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UCF

Points per game: 24.3#90 nationally · 34th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 23.6#56 nationally · 59th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 31% of 2024 PPA returns · 29th percentile
Upperclassmen: 54% · 112 of 112 with a class year

BYU

Points per game: 31.4#32 nationally · 77th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 19.1#19 nationally · 87th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 87% of 2024 PPA returns · 88th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Recruiting

UCF

2025 signing class · #79 nationally: 42nd percentile · 171.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #58 nationally: 58th percentile · 0.20 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #43 nationally: 68th percentile · 710.0

BYU

2025 signing class · #55 nationally: 60th percentile · 197.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #51 nationally: 63rd percentile · 0.25 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #70 nationally: 48th percentile · 649.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UCF: solid line, circles · BYU: dashed line, squares

UCF

Offense · 2025: 23.2 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.0 · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.5 · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 171.2 pts · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 31% returning · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

BYU

Offense · SP+ 2025: 33.9 · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 18.8 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.8 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 197.2 pts · 60th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 87% returning · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UCF's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
at BYU
L 21–41
40%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 62 recorded plays
vs Oklahoma State
W 17–14
42%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 35 recorded plays
at Texas Tech
L 9–48
26%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UCF

Head coach: Scott Frost
career +4.4 SP+ overall
Photo: elisfkc, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Steve Cooper
career +23.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Alex Grinch
career +23.9 SP+ defense

BYU

Head coach: Kalani Sitake
career +6.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Aaron Roderick
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kelly Poppinga
career +31.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

BYU leads 4–1 since 2000

2025 · BYU 41, UCF 21
LaVell Edwards Stadium
2024 · BYU 37, UCF 24
FBC Mortgage Stadium
2020 · BYU 49, UCF 23
Neutral site · FAU Stadium
2014 · UCF 31, BYU 24
FBC Mortgage Stadium
2011 · BYU 24, UCF 17
LaVell Edwards Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

UCF: 12 games
BYU: 14 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for UCF

BYU's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When UCF has the ball

UCF offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

BYU defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UCF defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Tayven Jackson

Myles Montgomery

Duane Thomas Jr.

UCF player production

BYU player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UCF

BYU

Recruiting

UCF

BYU

Season percentile profiles

UCF

BYU

UCF's recent games

at BYU

vs Oklahoma State

at Texas Tech

The coaching staff

UCF

BYU

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

BYU's defense leads its matchup in