Saturday Bias

Saturday, October 24

Compare these teams

South Carolina

3–3

vs

Tennessee

5–1 · AP #14

Time TBAWilliams-Brice StadiumColumbia, SC

Weather

Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Tennessee's case

Tennessee's offense leads its matchup in

Tennessee's offense was in the 98th percentile for success rate last season. South Carolina's defense was in the 48th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · South Carolina's answer

South Carolina has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Tennessee's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina offense
21st
Tennessee defense
50th
Show the underlying numbers
South Carolina offensive per play
0.1021st percentile · #103 nationally
Tennessee PPA allowed per play
0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
South Carolina success rate
38%16th percentile · #115 nationally
Tennessee success rate allowed
45%18th percentile · #112 nationally
South Carolina points per game
22.724th percentile · #104 nationally
Tennessee per game
28.832nd percentile · #92 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

South Carolina offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness
1.31
Rush success
41.6%

Tennessee defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed
1.26
Rush success allowed
46.4%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee offense
95th
South Carolina defense
76th
Show the underlying numbers
Tennessee offensive PPA per play
0.3295th percentile · #8 nationally
South Carolina PPA allowed per play
0.0876th percentile · #29 nationally
Tennessee success rate
50%98th percentile · #4 nationally
South Carolina success rate allowed
42%48th percentile · #71 nationally
Tennessee points per game
39.896th percentile · #6 nationally
South Carolina points allowed per game
22.167th percentile · #45 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Tennessee offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness
1.25
Rush success
49.6%

South Carolina defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed
1.21
Rush success allowed
37.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Offense on the field
Play type
Field measure
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Direction, from the offense's perspective

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

LaNorris Sellers · 86% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays
44%
Usage: charted in this direction
126 attempts
Yards / attempt
8.0
over 124 attempts with a result
Completion rate
60%
over 124 attempts with a result

285 of 292 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 243 short · 42 deep · 7 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.8 over 75 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The South Carolina offense in 2025

Featured players for

LaNorris Sellers

QB · 12 games

178/293 · 61% season

Passing yards
2,437
Touchdowns
13
Interceptions
8

Last game

Clemson · Nov 29, 2025: 23/42, 381 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

Lanorris Sellers

QB · 12 games

Carries
149
Rushing yards
270
Touchdowns
5

Last game

Clemson · Nov 29, 2025: 12 carries, 2 yds, 0 TD

Vandrevious Jacobs

WR · 8 games

Receptions
32
Receiving yards
548
Touchdowns
4

Last game

Clemson · Nov 29, 2025: 7 rec, 141 yds, 1 TD

South Carolina player tables

Who is producing

South Carolina player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Statistic category

Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first

South Carolina — Passing production
Player
Lanorris SellersQB12178 / 2932,4378.3138
Luke DotyWR319 / 301535.101
Cutter WoodsQB28 / 11696.301
Air NolandQB12 / 3134.300
Mason LovePK21 / 2105.001
Brian Rowe Jr.WR11 / 12121.000

6 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Tennessee player tables

Who is producing

Tennessee player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Statistic category

Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first

Tennessee — Passing production
Player
Joey AguilarQB13272 / 4043,5658.82410
Jake MerklingerQB313 / 241737.220
George MacIntyreQB27 / 9697.700

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

In the trenches

South Carolina's line averages 314.9 lbs against Tennessee's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 42.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

MatchupO-lineD-line
South Carolina OL314.9 lbs272.1 lbs
Tennessee OL317.9 lbs274.3 lbs
  • South Carolina
  • Tennessee

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

South Carolina

Points per game
22.7#104 nationally · 24th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game
22.1#45 nationally · 67th percentile · 12 games
Returning production
63% of 2024 PPA returns · 65th percentile
Upperclassmen
42% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Tennessee

Points per game
39.8#6 nationally · 96th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game
28.8#92 nationally · 32nd percentile · 13 games
Returning production
22% of 2024 PPA returns · 19th percentile
Upperclassmen
35% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Recruiting

South Carolina

2025 signing class · #18 nationally
87th percentile · 244.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #19 nationally
87th percentile · 1.08 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #18 nationally
87th percentile · 833.3

Tennessee

2025 signing class · #11 nationally
93rd percentile · 277.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #12 nationally
92nd percentile · 1.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #16 nationally
89th percentile · 866.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Offense · SP+ 2025Defense · SP+ 2025Special teams · SP+ 2025Recruiting · 2025 signing classExperience · returning production 2025South Carolina Offense · SP+ 2025: 24.6, 36th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)South Carolina Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.2, 78th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)South Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5, 84th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)South Carolina Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 244.3 pts, 87th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)South Carolina Experience · returning production 2025: 63% returning, 65th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2025: 39.3, 95th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.4, 54th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1, 74th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)Tennessee Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 277.9 pts, 93rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)Tennessee Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning, 19th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)0100
  • South Carolina Offense · SP+ 2025: 24.6, 36th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2025: 39.3, 95th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • South Carolina Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.2, 78th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.4, 54th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • South Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5, 84th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1, 74th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
  • South Carolina Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 244.3 pts, 87th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
  • Tennessee Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 277.9 pts, 93rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
  • South Carolina Experience · returning production 2025: 63% returning, 65th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
  • Tennessee Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning, 19th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

South Carolina: solid line, circles · Tennessee: dashed line, squares

South Carolina

Offense · 2025
24.6 · 36th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025
20.2 · 78th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025
1.5 · 84th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class
244.3 pts · 87th percentile
CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025
63% returning · 65th percentile
CFBD, 2025 roster

Tennessee

Offense · SP+ 2025
39.3 · 95th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025
25.4 · 54th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025
1.1 · 74th percentile
CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class
277.9 pts · 93rd percentile
CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025
22% returning · 19th percentile
CFBD, 2025 roster

South Carolina's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

  1. Nov 29 · 61 recorded plays

    vs Clemson

    L 14–28

    38%

    Success rate

    −0.02

    PPA / play

  2. Nov 22 · 35 recorded plays

    vs Coastal Carolina

    W 51–7

    63%

    Success rate

    0.78

    PPA / play

  3. Nov 15 · 65 recorded plays

    at Texas A&M

    L 30–31

    29%

    Success rate

    0.15

    PPA / play

The coaching staff

South Carolina

Head coach
Shane Beamer

Shane Beamer

career +8.7 SP+ overall

Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0

Offensive coordinator

Kendal Briles

career +33.7 SP+ offense

Defensive coordinator

Clayton White

career +24.0 SP+ defense

Tennessee

Head coach
Josh Heupel

Josh Heupel

career +18.1 SP+ overall

Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 4.0

Offensive coordinator
Joey Halzle

Joey Halzle

career +36.0 SP+ offense

Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 3.0

Defensive coordinator
Anthony Poindexter

Anthony Poindexter

Co-defensive coordinator · career +22.6 SP+ defense

Photo: Thomsonmg2000, CC0

Jim Knowles

Jim Knowles

career +22.6 SP+ defense

Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Tennessee leads 15–9 since 2000

  1. 2023 · Tennessee 41, South Carolina 20

    Neyland Stadium

  2. 2022 · South Carolina 63, Tennessee 38

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  3. 2021 · Tennessee 45, South Carolina 20

    Neyland Stadium

  4. 2020 · Tennessee 31, South Carolina 27

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  5. 2019 · Tennessee 41, South Carolina 21

    Neyland Stadium

  6. 2018 · South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  7. 2017 · South Carolina 15, Tennessee 9

    Neyland Stadium

  8. 2016 · South Carolina 24, Tennessee 21

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  9. 2015 · Tennessee 27, South Carolina 24

    Neyland Stadium

  10. 2014 · Tennessee 45, South Carolina 42

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  11. 2013 · Tennessee 23, South Carolina 21

    Neyland Stadium

  12. 2012 · South Carolina 38, Tennessee 35

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  13. 2011 · South Carolina 14, Tennessee 3

    Neyland Stadium

  14. 2010 · South Carolina 38, Tennessee 24

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  15. 2009 · Tennessee 31, South Carolina 13

    Neyland Stadium

  16. 2008 · South Carolina 27, Tennessee 6

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  17. 2007 · Tennessee 27, South Carolina 24

    Neyland Stadium

  18. 2006 · Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  19. 2005 · South Carolina 16, Tennessee 15

    Neyland Stadium

  20. 2004 · Tennessee 43, South Carolina 29

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  21. 2003 · Tennessee 23, South Carolina 20

    Neyland Stadium

  22. 2002 · Tennessee 18, South Carolina 10

    Williams-Brice Stadium

  23. 2001 · Tennessee 17, South Carolina 10

    Neyland Stadium

  24. 2000 · Tennessee 17, South Carolina 14

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

  • South Carolina: 12 games
  • Tennessee: 13 games
  • The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
  • When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
  • Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
  • In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
  • Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
  • Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
Compare these teams