2026 South Carolina vs 2026 Tennessee
Hypothetical
57% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 South Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.9, 85th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.0, 62nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 18.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 256.4 pts, 91st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 290.7 pts, 95th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 South Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 83rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 South Carolina | 2026 Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2169th percentile | 0.2064th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1328th percentile | −0.0891st percentile |
| Points per game | 37.782nd percentile6 games | 34.768th percentile6 games |
| per game | 25.538th percentile6 games | 15.587th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 90th percentile
Campus distance
215 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 South Carolina OL vs 2026 Tennessee DL | 314.9 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
| 2026 Tennessee OL vs 2026 South Carolina DL | 317.9 lbs | 274.3 lbs |
2026 South Carolina line yards 3.54 · 2026 Tennessee stuff rate 19.4%
2026 Tennessee line yards 3.45 · 2026 South Carolina stuff rate 23.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Tennessee leads 15–9 since 2000
Tennessee has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | South Carolina 20–41 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2022 | South Carolina 63–38 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2021 | South Carolina 20–45 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2020 | South Carolina 27–31 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2019 | South Carolina 21–41 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2018 | South Carolina 27–24 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2017 | South Carolina 15–9 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2016 | South Carolina 24–21 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2015 | South Carolina 24–27 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2014 | South Carolina 42–45 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2013 | South Carolina 21–23 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2012 | South Carolina 38–35 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2011 | South Carolina 14–3 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2010 | South Carolina 38–24 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2009 | South Carolina 13–31 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2008 | South Carolina 27–6 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2007 | South Carolina 24–27 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2006 | South Carolina 24–31 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2005 | South Carolina 16–15 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2004 | South Carolina 29–43 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2003 | South Carolina 20–23 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2002 | South Carolina 10–18 Tennessee | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2001 | South Carolina 10–17 Tennessee | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2000 | South Carolina 14–17 Tennessee | South Carolina home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Shane Beamer
OC
- Kendal Briles
career average +33.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Bear raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 52nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.2 plays a game, 91st percentile)
DC
- Clayton White
career average +24.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Josh Heupel
OC
- Joey Halzle
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 10th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.7 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Anthony Poindexter (co-DC)
- Jim Knowles
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Tennessee at South Carolina · October 24, 2026
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