Saturday, October 24

Iowa

5–1 · AP #17

Minnesota

4–2

Time TBAHuntington Bank StadiumMinneapolis, MN

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Iowa's case

Iowa's defense leads its matchup in

Iowa's defense was in the 95th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Minnesota's offense was in the 25th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Minnesota's answer

Minnesota has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Iowa's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offense: 39th
Minnesota defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Iowa offensive per play: 0.1539th percentile · #79 nationally
Minnesota PPA allowed per play: 0.1836th percentile · #83 nationally
Iowa: 44%67th percentile · #46 nationally
Minnesota success rate allowed: 44%27th percentile · #100 nationally
Iowa points per game: 29.361st percentile · #54 nationally
Minnesota points allowed per game: 22.964th percentile · #50 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Iowa offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.14
Rush success: 46.9%

Minnesota defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.27
Rush success allowed: 46.3%

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota offense: 25th
Iowa defense: 87th

Show the underlying numbers

Minnesota offensive PPA per play: 0.1125th percentile · #97 nationally
Iowa PPA allowed per play: 0.0587th percentile · #15 nationally
Minnesota success rate: 40%32nd percentile · #93 nationally
Iowa success rate allowed: 39%75th percentile · #35 nationally
Minnesota points per game: 23.025th percentile · #101 nationally
Iowa points allowed per game: 16.195th percentile · #8 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Minnesota offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 39.2%

Iowa defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 42.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Mark Gronowski · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 101 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.0; over 101 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 101 attempts with a result

234 of 240 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 207 short · 27 deep · 6 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Iowa offense in 2025

Mark Gronowski

QB · 13 games

166/262 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,741
Touchdowns: 10
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Vanderbilt · Dec 31, 2025: 16/22, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Kamari Moulton

RB · 11 games

Carries: 170
Rushing yards: 878
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Vanderbilt · Dec 31, 2025: 14 carries, 95 yds, 1 TD

DJ Vonnahme

TE · 10 games

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 434
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Vanderbilt · Dec 31, 2025: 7 rec, 146 yds, 1 TD

Iowa player tables

Who is producing

Iowa player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Iowa — Passing production
Player
Mark GronowskiQB	13	166 / 262	1,741	6.6	10	7
Hank BrownQB	3	11 / 21	107	5.1	1	1
Jeremy HecklinskiQB	2	2 / 2	8	4.0	0	0
Reece Vander ZeeWR	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Minnesota player tables

Who is producing

Minnesota player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Minnesota — Passing production
Player
Drake LindseyQB	13	246 / 389	2,382	6.1	18	6
Max ShikenjanskiQB	1	4 / 5	80	16.0	1	0
Dylan WittkeQB	1	1 / 3	7	2.3	0	1

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Iowa's line averages 302.4 lbs against Minnesota's 273.8 lbs front — an edge of 28.6 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Iowa OLIowa OL vs Minnesota DL	302.4 lbs	273.8 lbs
Minnesota OLMinnesota OL vs Iowa DL	310.9 lbs	275.0 lbs

Iowa
Minnesota

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Iowa

Points per game: 29.3#54 nationally · 61st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 16.1#8 nationally · 95th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 49% of 2024 PPA returns · 45th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Minnesota

Points per game: 23.0#101 nationally · 25th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 22.9#50 nationally · 64th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 44% of 2024 PPA returns · 41st percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Recruiting

Iowa

2025 signing class · #38 nationally: 73rd percentile · 208.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #34 nationally: 76th percentile · 0.53 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #42 nationally: 69th percentile · 710.0

Minnesota

2025 signing class · #49 nationally: 64th percentile · 200.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #41 nationally: 70th percentile · 0.41 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #41 nationally: 70th percentile · 711.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Iowa: solid line, circles · Minnesota: dashed line, squares

Iowa

Offense · 2025: 32.1 · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 14.2 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.7 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 208.3 pts · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 49% returning · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Minnesota

Offense · SP+ 2025: 23.8 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.8 · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.6 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 200.9 pts · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 44% returning · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Iowa's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 31
vs Vanderbilt · neutral site
W 34–27
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 54 recorded plays
at Nebraska
W 40–16
46%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 64 recorded plays
vs Michigan State
W 20–17
41%
Success rate
−0.09
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Iowa

Head coach: Kirk Ferentz
career +13.3 SP+ overall
Photo: The Ray Center, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Lester
career +29.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Phil Parker
career +15.6 SP+ defense

Minnesota

Head coach: P.J. Fleck
career +4.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Greg Harbaugh Jr.
career +23.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Danny Collins
career +19.5 SP+ defense; Nick Monroe
Co-defensive coordinator · career +19.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Iowa leads 20–6 since 2000

2025 · Iowa 41, Minnesota 3
Kinnick Stadium
2024 · Iowa 31, Minnesota 14
Huntington Bank Stadium
2023 · Minnesota 12, Iowa 10
Kinnick Stadium
2022 · Iowa 13, Minnesota 10
Huntington Bank Stadium
2021 · Iowa 27, Minnesota 22
Kinnick Stadium
2020 · Iowa 35, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2019 · Iowa 23, Minnesota 19
Kinnick Stadium
2018 · Iowa 48, Minnesota 31
Huntington Bank Stadium
2017 · Iowa 17, Minnesota 10
Kinnick Stadium
2016 · Iowa 14, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2015 · Iowa 40, Minnesota 35
Kinnick Stadium
2014 · Minnesota 51, Iowa 14
Huntington Bank Stadium
2013 · Iowa 23, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2012 · Iowa 31, Minnesota 13
Kinnick Stadium
2011 · Minnesota 22, Iowa 21
Huntington Bank Stadium
2010 · Minnesota 27, Iowa 24
Huntington Bank Stadium
2009 · Iowa 12, Minnesota 0
Kinnick Stadium
2008 · Iowa 55, Minnesota 0
2007 · Iowa 21, Minnesota 16
Kinnick Stadium
2006 · Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
2005 · Iowa 52, Minnesota 28
Kinnick Stadium
2004 · Iowa 29, Minnesota 27
2003 · Iowa 40, Minnesota 22
Kinnick Stadium
2002 · Iowa 45, Minnesota 21
2001 · Iowa 42, Minnesota 24
Kinnick Stadium
2000 · Minnesota 27, Iowa 24

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Iowa: 13 games
Minnesota: 13 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Iowa's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Minnesota has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Minnesota defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Iowa defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Mark Gronowski

Kamari Moulton

DJ Vonnahme

Iowa player production

Minnesota player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Iowa

Minnesota

Recruiting

Iowa

Minnesota

Season percentile profiles

Iowa

Minnesota

Iowa's recent games

vs Vanderbilt · neutral site

at Nebraska

vs Michigan State

The coaching staff

Iowa

Minnesota

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Iowa's defense leads its matchup in