Saturday, October 24

Iowa

5–1 · AP #17

Minnesota

4–2

Time TBAHuntington Bank StadiumMinneapolis, MN

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Iowa's case

Iowa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Iowa's defense is in the 74th percentile for allowed per play this season. Minnesota's offense is in the 22nd percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Minnesota's answer

Minnesota has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Iowa's defense.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offense: 57th
Minnesota defense: 58th

Show the underlying numbers

Iowa offensive PPA per play: 0.1857th percentile · #54 nationally
Minnesota PPA allowed per play: 0.0458th percentile · #55 nationally
Iowa: 45%65th percentile · #49 nationally
Minnesota success rate allowed: 39%58th percentile · #58 nationally
Iowa points per game: 31.055th percentile · #62 nationally
Minnesota per game: 21.860th percentile · #56 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Iowa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 46.7%

Minnesota defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.16
Rush success allowed: 50.5%

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota offense: 22nd
Iowa defense: 74th

Show the underlying numbers

Minnesota offensive PPA per play: 0.0522nd percentile · #105 nationally
Iowa PPA allowed per play: −0.0274th percentile · #33 nationally
Minnesota success rate: 43%45th percentile · #76 nationally
Iowa success rate allowed: 34%87th percentile · #19 nationally
Minnesota points per game: 28.849th percentile · #71 nationally
Iowa points allowed per game: 14.591st percentile · #14 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Minnesota offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 39.8%

Iowa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 34.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Hank Brown · 76% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 42 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.8; over 42 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 42 attempts with a result

97 of 97 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 84 short · 13 deep · 0 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Iowa offense in 2026

Hank Brown

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

78/124 · 63% season

Passing yards: 832
Touchdowns: 5
Interception: 1

Last game

Ohio State · Oct 3, 2026: 12/27, 132 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Kamari Moulton

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 76
Rushing yards: 519
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Washington · Oct 9, 2026: 26 carries, 208 yds, 2 TD

Tony Diaz

WR · 6 games

Receptions: 28
Receiving yards: 329
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Washington · Oct 9, 2026: 3 rec, 23 yds, 0 TD

Iowa player tables

Who is producing

Iowa player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Iowa — Passing production
Player
Hank BrownQB	5	78 / 124	832	6.7	5	1
Jeremy HecklinskiQB	4	32 / 51	410	8.0	4	1
Jimmy SullivanQB	1	2 / 4	13	3.3	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Minnesota player tables

Who is producing

Minnesota player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Minnesota — Passing production
Player
Drake LindseyQB	6	127 / 196	1,335	6.8	9	5
Brady PalmerQB	1	4 / 6	34	5.7	0	0
Max ShikenjanskiQB	1	3 / 3	50	16.7	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Iowa's line averages 302.4 lbs against Minnesota's 273.8 lbs front — an edge of 28.6 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Iowa OLIowa OL vs Minnesota DL	302.4 lbs	273.8 lbs
Minnesota OLMinnesota OL vs Iowa DL	310.9 lbs	275.0 lbs

Iowa
Minnesota

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Iowa

Points per game: 31.0#62 nationally · 55th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 14.5#14 nationally · 91st percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 34% of 2025 PPA returns · 39th percentile
Upperclassmen: 56% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Minnesota

Points per game: 28.8#71 nationally · 49th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 21.8#56 nationally · 60th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 65% of 2025 PPA returns · 76th percentile
Upperclassmen: 54% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Recruiting

Iowa

2026 signing class · #26 nationally: 82nd percentile · 228.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 0.58 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #44 nationally: 69th percentile · 722.7

Minnesota

2026 signing class · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 226.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #36 nationally: 74th percentile · 0.50 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #41 nationally: 71st percentile · 728.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Iowa: solid line, circles · Minnesota: dashed line, squares

Iowa

Offense · 2026: 29.3 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.7 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 228.6 pts · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Minnesota

Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1 · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.7 pts · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Iowa's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 9 · 50 recorded plays
at Washington
W 41–24
66%
Success rate
0.56
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 47 recorded plays
vs Ohio State
L 14–31
34%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 60 recorded plays
at Michigan
W 20–19
28%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Iowa

Head coach: Kirk Ferentz
career +13.3 SP+ overall
Photo: The Ray Center, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Lester
career +29.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Phil Parker
career +15.6 SP+ defense

Minnesota

Head coach: P.J. Fleck
career +4.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Greg Harbaugh Jr.
career +23.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Danny Collins
career +19.5 SP+ defense; Nick Monroe
Co-defensive coordinator · career +19.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Iowa leads 20–6 since 2000

2025 · Iowa 41, Minnesota 3
Kinnick Stadium
2024 · Iowa 31, Minnesota 14
Huntington Bank Stadium
2023 · Minnesota 12, Iowa 10
Kinnick Stadium
2022 · Iowa 13, Minnesota 10
Huntington Bank Stadium
2021 · Iowa 27, Minnesota 22
Kinnick Stadium
2020 · Iowa 35, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2019 · Iowa 23, Minnesota 19
Kinnick Stadium
2018 · Iowa 48, Minnesota 31
Huntington Bank Stadium
2017 · Iowa 17, Minnesota 10
Kinnick Stadium
2016 · Iowa 14, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2015 · Iowa 40, Minnesota 35
Kinnick Stadium
2014 · Minnesota 51, Iowa 14
Huntington Bank Stadium
2013 · Iowa 23, Minnesota 7
Huntington Bank Stadium
2012 · Iowa 31, Minnesota 13
Kinnick Stadium
2011 · Minnesota 22, Iowa 21
Huntington Bank Stadium
2010 · Minnesota 27, Iowa 24
Huntington Bank Stadium
2009 · Iowa 12, Minnesota 0
Kinnick Stadium
2008 · Iowa 55, Minnesota 0
2007 · Iowa 21, Minnesota 16
Kinnick Stadium
2006 · Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
2005 · Iowa 52, Minnesota 28
Kinnick Stadium
2004 · Iowa 29, Minnesota 27
2003 · Iowa 40, Minnesota 22
Kinnick Stadium
2002 · Iowa 45, Minnesota 21
2001 · Iowa 42, Minnesota 24
Kinnick Stadium
2000 · Minnesota 27, Iowa 24

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Iowa: 6 games
Minnesota: 6 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Iowa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Minnesota has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Minnesota defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Iowa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Hank Brown

Kamari Moulton

Tony Diaz

Iowa player production

Minnesota player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Iowa

Minnesota

Recruiting

Iowa

Minnesota

Season percentile profiles

Iowa

Minnesota

Iowa's recent games

at Washington

vs Ohio State

at Michigan

The coaching staff

Iowa

Minnesota

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources