Saturday, October 24

Illinois

3–3

Oregon

3–2

Time TBAMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Champaign, IL

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Oregon's case

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in

Oregon's offense was in the 89th percentile for success rate last season. Illinois's defense was in the 10th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Illinois's answer

Illinois has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Oregon's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois offense: 71st
Oregon defense: 90th

Show the underlying numbers

Illinois offensive per play: 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
Oregon PPA allowed per play: 0.0490th percentile · #13 nationally
Illinois success rate: 48%90th percentile · #15 nationally
Oregon success rate allowed: 36%90th percentile · #15 nationally
Illinois points per game: 29.461st percentile · #53 nationally
Oregon per game: 17.992nd percentile · #12 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Illinois offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.13
Rush success: 46.2%

Oregon defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 42.1%

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense: 87th
Illinois defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Oregon offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Illinois PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Oregon success rate: 47%89th percentile · #16 nationally
Illinois success rate allowed: 45%10th percentile · #122 nationally
Oregon points per game: 36.993rd percentile · #10 nationally
Illinois points allowed per game: 23.659th percentile · #57 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Oregon offense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 52.3%

Illinois defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.18
Rush success allowed: 39.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Luke Altmyer · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 152 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.6; over 151 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 74%; over 151 attempts with a result

327 of 332 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 289 short · 38 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (46%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.1 over 59 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Illinois offense in 2025

Luke Altmyer

QB · 13 games

246/365 · 67% season

Passing yards: 3,007
Touchdowns: 22
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Tennessee · Dec 30, 2025: 20/33, 196 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Ca'Lil Valentine

RB · 13 games

Carries: 131
Rushing yards: 614
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Tennessee · Dec 30, 2025: 8 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD

Hank Beatty

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 70
Receiving yards: 864
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Tennessee · Dec 30, 2025: 6 rec, 38 yds, 0 TD

Illinois player tables

Who is producing

Illinois player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Illinois — Passing production
Player
Luke AltmyerQB	13	246 / 365	3,007	8.2	22	5
Ethan HamptonQB	2	3 / 4	27	6.8	0	1
Hank BeattyWR	3	2 / 3	31	10.3	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Oregon player tables

Who is producing

Oregon player production

2025 evidence · 15 games in this window · 15 with recorded rows in this view

Oregon — Passing production
Player
Dante MooreQB	15	296 / 412	3,565	8.7	30	10
Brock ThomasQB	5	12 / 16	130	8.1	1	0
Luke MogaQB	2	3 / 5	58	11.6	0	0
Austin NovosadQB	1	1 / 2	40	20.0	0	0
James Ferguson-ReynoldsP	1	1 / 1	11	11.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Illinois's line averages 316.2 lbs against Oregon's 308.9 lbs front — an edge of 7.3 lbs a man.

Oregon's front average is based on 8 of 10 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Illinois OLIllinois OL vs Oregon DL	316.2 lbs	308.9 lbs
Oregon OLOregon OL vs Illinois DL	313.2 lbs	284.4 lbs

Illinois
Oregon

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Illinois

Points per game: 29.4#53 nationally · 61st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 23.6#57 nationally · 59th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 53% of 2024 PPA returns · 50th percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Oregon

Points per game: 36.9#10 nationally · 93rd percentile · 15 games
Points allowed per game: 17.9#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 15 games
Returning production: 19% of 2024 PPA returns · 14th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Illinois

2025 signing class · #45 nationally: 67th percentile · 202.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #43 nationally: 69th percentile · 0.37 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #64 nationally: 53rd percentile · 662.1

Oregon

2025 signing class · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 296.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 1.82 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 941.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Illinois: solid line, circles · Oregon: dashed line, squares

Illinois

Offense · 2025: 33.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.7 · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 202.8 pts · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 53% returning · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Oregon

Offense · SP+ 2025: 38.7 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 13.5 · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 296.1 pts · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 19% returning · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Illinois's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 30
vs Tennessee · neutral site
W 30–28
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 53 recorded plays
vs Northwestern
W 20–13
51%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 66 recorded plays
at Wisconsin
L 10–27
35%
Success rate
0.07
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Illinois

Head coach: Bret Bielema
career +12.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Barry Lunney Jr.
career +26.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Bobby Hauck
no career rating on file; Bobby Hauck (1st season; first 4 games)
no career rating on file
Photo: Lakia Clarke-Brown; cropped by User:Blueag9., Public domain; Bobby Hauck (games 1–4)
no career rating on file
Photo: Lakia Clarke-Brown; cropped by User:Blueag9., Public domain

Oregon

Head coach: Dan Lanning
career +24.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Drew Mehringer
career +28.0 SP+ offense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Chris Hampton
career +19.6 SP+ defense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0

Head-to-head

Oregon leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · Oregon 38, Illinois 9
Autzen Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Illinois: 13 games
Oregon: 15 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Illinois has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Oregon defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Illinois defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Luke Altmyer

Ca'Lil Valentine

Hank Beatty

Illinois player production

Oregon player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Illinois

Oregon

Recruiting

Illinois

Oregon

Season percentile profiles

Illinois

Oregon

Illinois's recent games

vs Tennessee · neutral site

vs Northwestern

at Wisconsin

The coaching staff

Illinois

Oregon

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in