Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
3–3
at
Arizona
5–1
Time TBAArizona StadiumTucson, AZ
Forecast available from Friday, October 16.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · Iowa State's case
Iowa State's defense was in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play last season. Arizona's offense was in the 48th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Arizona's answer
Arizona's defense was in the 85th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Iowa State's offense was in the 49th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Rocco Becht · 98% of charted pass attempts
330 of 339 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 284 short · 46 deep · 9 not stated
The Iowa State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
204/337 · 61% season
Last game
Oklahoma State · Nov 29, 2025: 8/17, 94 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 11 games
Last game
Oklahoma State · Nov 29, 2025: 24 carries, 109 yds, 0 TD
TE · 12 games
Last game
Oklahoma State · Nov 29, 2025: 1 rec, 24 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco BechtQB | 12 | 204 / 337 | 2,565 | 7.6 | 16 | 9 |
| Alex ManskeQB | 1 | 4 / 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin BrahmerTE | 1 | 1 / 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson HansenRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor MoberlyQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah FifitaQB | 13 | 275 / 429 | 3,228 | 7.5 | 29 | 6 |
| Braedyn LockeQB | 3 | 5 / 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason BrayQB | 1 | 1 / 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javin WhatleyWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Iowa State's line averages 306.4 lbs against Arizona's 288.6 lbs front — an edge of 17.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State OLIowa State OL vs Arizona DL | 306.4 lbs | 288.6 lbs |
| Arizona OLArizona OL vs Iowa State DL | 314.2 lbs | 269.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Iowa State: solid line, circles · Arizona: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 61 recorded plays
W 20–13
46%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 74 recorded plays
W 38–14
47%
Success rate
0.40
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 67 recorded plays
W 20–17
40%
Success rate
−0.09
PPA / play
Jimmy Rogers
First season as Iowa State's head coach · career +3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Tyler Roehl
no career rating on file
Jesse Bobbit
career +20.5 SP+ defense
Danny Gonzales
career +24.5 SP+ defense
2025 · Iowa State 39, Arizona 14
Jack Trice Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season