Saturday, October 24

Iowa State

3–3

Arizona

5–1

Time TBAArizona StadiumTucson, AZ

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Arizona's case

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Arizona's defense is in the 80th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Iowa State's offense is in the 19th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Iowa State's answer

Iowa State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Arizona's defense.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State offense: 43rd
Arizona defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Iowa State offensive per play: 0.1343rd percentile · #76 nationally
Arizona PPA allowed per play: −0.0480th percentile · #27 nationally
Iowa State success rate: 39%19th percentile · #112 nationally
Arizona success rate allowed: 35%80th percentile · #28 nationally
Iowa State points per game: 29.751st percentile · #67 nationally
Arizona per game: 19.074th percentile · #34 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Iowa State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 40.1%

Arizona defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 39.2%

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona offense: 77th
Iowa State defense: 42nd

Show the underlying numbers

Arizona offensive PPA per play: 0.2477th percentile · #30 nationally
Iowa State PPA allowed per play: 0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Arizona success rate: 49%85th percentile · #21 nationally
Iowa State success rate allowed: 40%47th percentile · #73 nationally
Arizona points per game: 35.775th percentile · #34 nationally
Iowa State points allowed per game: 21.761st percentile · #53 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Arizona offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 49.6%

Iowa State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 45.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jaylen Raynor · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 41 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.4; over 40 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 55%; over 40 attempts with a result

89 of 92 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 71 short · 18 deep · 3 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (46%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.9 over 18 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Iowa State offense in 2026

Jaylen Raynor

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

85/148 · 57% season

Passing yards: 1,001
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 4

Last game

BYU · Oct 9, 2026: 16/29, 98 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Aiden Flora

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 90
Rushing yards: 680
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

BYU · Oct 9, 2026: 17 carries, 86 yds, 0 TD

Omari Hayes

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 17
Receiving yards: 208
Touchdown: 1

Last game

BYU · Oct 9, 2026: 3 rec, 18 yds, 0 TD

Iowa State player tables

Who is producing

Iowa State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Iowa State — Passing production
Player
Jaylen RaynorQB	6	85 / 148	1,001	6.8	7	4
Aiden FloraRB	1	2 / 2	48	24.0	2	0
Connor MoberlyQB	2	2 / 2	20	10.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Arizona player tables

Who is producing

Arizona player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Arizona — Passing production
Player
Noah FifitaQB	6	139 / 190	1,739	9.2	16	4
Sawyer AndersonQB	3	7 / 12	84	7.0	0	2

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Iowa State's line averages 306.4 lbs against Arizona's 288.6 lbs front — an edge of 17.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Iowa State OLIowa State OL vs Arizona DL	306.4 lbs	288.6 lbs
Arizona OLArizona OL vs Iowa State DL	314.2 lbs	269.9 lbs

Iowa State
Arizona

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Iowa State

Points per game: 29.7#67 nationally · 51st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 21.7#53 nationally · 61st percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 2% of 2025 PPA returns · 4th percentile
Upperclassmen: 44% · 126 of 126 with a class year

Arizona

Points per game: 35.7#34 nationally · 75th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 19.0#34 nationally · 74th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 65% of 2025 PPA returns · 76th percentile
Upperclassmen: 58% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Recruiting

Iowa State

2026 signing class · #54 nationally: 61st percentile · 203.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #56 nationally: 60th percentile · 0.20 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #68 nationally: 51st percentile · 669.5

Arizona

2026 signing class · #42 nationally: 70th percentile · 216.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #53 nationally: 62nd percentile · 0.23 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #54 nationally: 61st percentile · 699.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Iowa State: solid line, circles · Arizona: dashed line, squares

Iowa State

Offense · 2026: 25.4 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 203.3 pts · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 2% returning · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Arizona

Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.5 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.0 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 216.7 pts · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Iowa State's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 9 · 58 recorded plays
at BYU
L 10–24
29%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 78 recorded plays
vs West Virginia
W 45–42
50%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 74 recorded plays
vs Utah
L 17–31
36%
Success rate
−0.11
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Iowa State

Head coach: Jimmy Rogers
First season as Iowa State's head coach · career +3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Tyler Roehl
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Jesse Bobbit
career +20.5 SP+ defense

Arizona

Head coach: Brent Brennan
career −5.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Papafletch99, CC0
Offensive coordinator: Seth Doege
career +31.3 SP+ offense
Photo: Jeff Tinnell, CC BY-SA 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Danny Gonzales
career +24.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Iowa State leads 1–0 since 2000

2025 · Iowa State 39, Arizona 14
Jack Trice Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Iowa State: 6 games
Arizona: 6 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Iowa State has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Arizona defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Iowa State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Jaylen Raynor

Aiden Flora

Omari Hayes

Iowa State player production

Arizona player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Iowa State

Arizona

Recruiting

Iowa State

Arizona

Season percentile profiles

Iowa State

Arizona

Iowa State's recent games

at BYU

vs West Virginia

vs Utah

The coaching staff

Iowa State

Arizona

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in allowed