Saturday, October 24

Arizona

5–1

Iowa State

3–3

Time TBAArizona StadiumTucson, AZ

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Arizona's case

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in

Arizona's defense was in the 85th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Iowa State's offense was in the 49th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Iowa State's answer

Iowa State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Iowa State's defense was in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play last season. Arizona's offense was in the 48th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona offense: 48th
Iowa State defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

Arizona offensive PPA per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Iowa State PPA allowed per play: 0.0973rd percentile · #34 nationally
Arizona: 43%52nd percentile · #66 nationally
Iowa State success rate allowed: 39%70th percentile · #42 nationally
Arizona points per game: 31.579th percentile · #30 nationally
Iowa State points allowed per game: 20.281st percentile · #26 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Arizona offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 42.9%

Iowa State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 39.6%

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State offense: 61st
Arizona defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Iowa State offensive PPA per play: 0.1961st percentile · #49 nationally
Arizona PPA allowed per play: 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
Iowa State success rate: 45%73rd percentile · #38 nationally
Arizona success rate allowed: 38%81st percentile · #27 nationally
Iowa State points per game: 27.449th percentile · #70 nationally
Arizona points allowed per game: 19.385th percentile · #21 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Iowa State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 48.1%

Arizona defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 49.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Noah Fifita · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 171 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.4; over 171 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 64%; over 171 attempts with a result

380 of 386 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 334 short · 46 deep · 6 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (45%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.2 over 85 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Arizona offense in 2025

Noah Fifita

QB · 13 games

275/429 · 64% season

Passing yards: 3,228
Touchdowns: 29
Interceptions: 6

Last game

SMU · Jan 2, 2026: 28/43, 265 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

Ismail Mahdi

RB · 13 games

Carries: 133
Rushing yards: 853
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

SMU · Jan 2, 2026: 11 carries, 68 yds, 0 TD

Kris Hutson

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 60
Receiving yards: 764
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

SMU · Jan 2, 2026: 3 rec, 24 yds, 0 TD

Arizona player tables

Who is producing

Arizona player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Arizona — Passing production
Player
Noah FifitaQB	13	275 / 429	3,228	7.5	29	6
Braedyn LockeQB	3	5 / 15	68	4.5	0	1
Mason BrayQB	1	1 / 2	22	11.0	0	0
Javin WhatleyWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Iowa State player tables

Who is producing

Iowa State player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Iowa State — Passing production
Player
Rocco BechtQB	12	204 / 337	2,565	7.6	16	9
Alex ManskeQB	1	4 / 5	28	5.6	0	0
Benjamin BrahmerTE	1	1 / 1	45	45.0	0	0
Carson HansenRB	1	1 / 1	19	19.0	0	0
Connor MoberlyQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Arizona's line averages 314.2 lbs against Iowa State's 269.9 lbs front — an edge of 44.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Arizona OLArizona OL vs Iowa State DL	314.2 lbs	269.9 lbs
Iowa State OLIowa State OL vs Arizona DL	306.4 lbs	288.6 lbs

Arizona
Iowa State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Arizona

Points per game: 31.5#30 nationally · 79th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 19.3#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 56% of 2024 PPA returns · 56th percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Iowa State

Points per game: 27.4#70 nationally · 49th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 20.2#26 nationally · 81st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 58% of 2024 PPA returns · 59th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Recruiting

Arizona

2025 signing class · #50 nationally: 64th percentile · 200.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #56 nationally: 59th percentile · 0.21 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #67 nationally: 50th percentile · 651.6

Iowa State

2025 signing class · #54 nationally: 61st percentile · 197.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #46 nationally: 67th percentile · 0.32 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #71 nationally: 47th percentile · 648.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Arizona: solid line, circles · Iowa State: dashed line, squares

Arizona

Offense · 2025: 33.0 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 19.5 · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 200.7 pts · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 56% returning · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Iowa State

Offense · SP+ 2025: 28.1 · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 19.5 · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 197.4 pts · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 58% returning · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Arizona's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 2
vs SMU · neutral site
L 19–24
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 88 recorded plays
at Arizona State
W 23–7
43%
Success rate
0.00
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 57 recorded plays
vs Baylor
W 41–17
44%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Arizona

Head coach: Brent Brennan
career −5.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Papafletch99, CC0
Offensive coordinator: Seth Doege
career +31.3 SP+ offense
Photo: Jeff Tinnell, CC BY-SA 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Danny Gonzales
career +24.5 SP+ defense

Iowa State

Head coach: Jimmy Rogers
First season as Iowa State's head coach · career +3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Tyler Roehl
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Jesse Bobbit
career +20.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Iowa State leads 1–0 since 2000

2025 · Iowa State 39, Arizona 14
Jack Trice Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Arizona: 13 games
Iowa State: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Iowa State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Iowa State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Arizona defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Noah Fifita

Ismail Mahdi

Kris Hutson

Arizona player production

Iowa State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Arizona

Iowa State

Recruiting

Arizona

Iowa State

Season percentile profiles

Arizona

Iowa State

Arizona's recent games

vs SMU · neutral site

at Arizona State

vs Baylor

The coaching staff

Arizona

Iowa State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Arizona's defense leads its matchup in