2026 Arizona vs 2026 Iowa State

Hypothetical

Arizona by 5.5

65% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ArizonaPreseason baseline +12.9In-season results +2.5

Iowa StatePreseason baseline +7.2In-season results +2.7

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Arizona	2026 Iowa State
Offensive / play	0.2477th percentile	0.1343rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0480th percentile	0.0842nd percentile
Points per game	35.775th percentile6 games	29.751st percentile6 games
per game	19.074th percentile6 games	21.761st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Arizona2026 Iowa State

Momentum

Arizona↗ rising (+47 pctl over 3 seasons)

Iowa State↘ falling (−27 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Arizona

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 60th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 86th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+26)

2026 Iowa State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 63rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 53rd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

Campus distance

1165 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Arizona OL vs 2026 Iowa State DL	314.2 lbs	269.9 lbs
2026 Iowa State OL vs 2026 Arizona DL	306.4 lbs	288.6 lbs

2026 Arizona line yards 3.28 · 2026 Iowa State stuff rate 18.8%

2026 Iowa State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Arizona stuff rate 21.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Iowa State leads 1–0 since 2000

Iowa State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Arizona 14–39 Iowa State	Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Arizona

Brent Brennan

Seth Doege

career average +31.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

Danny Gonzales

career average +24.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Iowa State

Jimmy Rogers (First season as Iowa State's head coach)

Tyler Roehl

no career track record on file

Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 24th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 20th percentile)

Jesse Bobbit

career average +20.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.