Friday, October 23

NC State

3–3

Stanford

2–4

10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTStanford StadiumStanford, CA

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · NC State's case

NC State's defense leads its matchup in allowed

NC State's defense was in the 65th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Stanford's offense was in the 10th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Stanford's answer

Stanford has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against NC State's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When NC State has the ball

NC State offense: 80th
Stanford defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

NC State offensive per play: 0.2480th percentile · #26 nationally
Stanford PPA allowed per play: 0.1836th percentile · #83 nationally
NC State success rate: 42%51st percentile · #67 nationally
Stanford success rate allowed: 42%39th percentile · #84 nationally
NC State points per game: 30.267th percentile · #44 nationally
Stanford per game: 29.230th percentile · #96 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

NC State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.40
Rush success: 47.6%

Stanford defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.39
Rush success allowed: 38.0%

When Stanford has the ball

Stanford offense: 10th
NC State defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Stanford offensive PPA per play: 0.0610th percentile · #119 nationally
NC State PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Stanford success rate: 36%10th percentile · #123 nationally
NC State success rate allowed: 40%65th percentile · #48 nationally
Stanford points per game: 18.810th percentile · #122 nationally
NC State points allowed per game: 27.239th percentile · #82 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Stanford offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.18
Rush success: 35.8%

NC State defense · 2025 season · 6 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 40.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

CJ Bailey · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 160 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.4; over 159 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 159 attempts with a result

364 of 373 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 316 short · 48 deep · 9 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The NC State offense in 2025

CJ Bailey

QB · 13 games

273/397 · 69% season

Passing yards: 3,105
Touchdowns: 25
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Memphis · Dec 19, 2025: 14/25, 221 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Daylan Smothers

RB · 11 games

Carries: 160
Rushing yards: 939
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

North Carolina · Nov 29, 2025: 12 carries, 32 yds, 0 TD

Justin Joly

TE · 12 games

Receptions: 49
Receiving yards: 489
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Memphis · Dec 19, 2025: 2 rec, 21 yds, 0 TD

NC State player tables

Who is producing

NC State player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

NC State — Passing production
Player
CJ BaileyQB	13	273 / 397	3,105	7.8	25	9
Lex ThomasQB	2	2 / 7	18	2.6	0	0
Will WilsonQB	1	3 / 5	16	3.2	0	1
Daylan SmothersRB	1	1 / 1	−4	−4.0	0	0
Teddy HoffmannWR	1	1 / 1	59	59.0	1	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Stanford player tables

Who is producing

Stanford player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Stanford — Passing production
Player
Ben GulbransonQB	9	148 / 260	1,813	7.0	9	10
Elijah BrownQB	6	74 / 127	829	6.5	4	2
Charlie MirerQB	1	2 / 3	22	7.3	1	0
Micah FordRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

NC State's line averages 308.3 lbs against Stanford's 277.5 lbs front — an edge of 30.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
NC State OLNC State OL vs Stanford DL	308.3 lbs	277.5 lbs
Stanford OLStanford OL vs NC State DL	303.9 lbs	273.8 lbs

NC State
Stanford

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

NC State

Points per game: 30.2#44 nationally · 67th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 27.2#82 nationally · 39th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 95% of 2024 PPA returns · 91st percentile
Upperclassmen: 31% · 126 of 126 with a class year

Stanford

Points per game: 18.8#122 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 29.2#96 nationally · 30th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 19% of 2024 PPA returns · 15th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Recruiting

NC State

2025 signing class · #34 nationally: 76th percentile · 214.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #33 nationally: 76th percentile · 0.55 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #45 nationally: 67th percentile · 707.5

Stanford

2025 signing class · #56 nationally: 59th percentile · 196.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #36 nationally: 74th percentile · 0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #46 nationally: 66th percentile · 707.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

NC State: solid line, circles · Stanford: dashed line, squares

NC State

Offense · 2025: 31.4 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.5 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.2 · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 214.3 pts · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 95% returning · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Stanford

Offense · SP+ 2025: 18.4 · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.6 · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.7 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 196.6 pts · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 19% returning · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

NC State's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 19
vs Memphis · neutral site
W 31–7
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 69 recorded plays
vs North Carolina
W 42–19
52%
Success rate
0.43
PPA / play
Nov 21 · 69 recorded plays
vs Florida State
W 21–11
42%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

NC State

Head coach: Dave Doeren
career +6.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Kurt Roper
career +26.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Charlton Warren
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense; D. J. Eliot
career +31.4 SP+ defense

Stanford

Head coach: Tavita Pritchard
First season as Stanford's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Terry Heffernan
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Kris Richard
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

NC State leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · NC State 59, Stanford 28
Carter-Finley Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

NC State: 13 games
Stanford: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

NC State's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Stanford has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When NC State has the ball

NC State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Stanford defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Stanford has the ball

Stanford offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

NC State defense · 2025 season · 6 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

CJ Bailey

Daylan Smothers

Justin Joly

NC State player production

Stanford player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

NC State

Stanford

Recruiting

NC State

Stanford

Season percentile profiles

NC State

Stanford

NC State's recent games

vs Memphis · neutral site

vs North Carolina

vs Florida State

The coaching staff

NC State

Stanford

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

NC State's defense leads its matchup in allowed