01 · NC State's case
NC State's offense leads its matchup in scoring
NC State's offense is in the 64th percentile for points per game this season. Stanford's defense is in the 1st percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbersFriday, October 23
Compare these teams
NC State
3–3
at
Stanford
2–4
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTStanford StadiumStanford, CA
Weather
Forecast available from Friday, October 16.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Game forecast
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
The game in a minute
02 · Stanford's answer
Stanford has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its defense's numbers stands out against NC State's offense.
03 · What could swing it
No forecast yet
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When NC State has the ball
- NC State offense
- 62nd
- Stanford defense
- 0th
Show the underlying numbers
- NC State offensive per play
- 0.1962nd percentile · #51 nationally
- Stanford PPA allowed per play
- 0.370th percentile · #138 nationally
- NC State
- 46%66th percentile · #48 nationally
- Stanford success rate allowed
- 50%4th percentile · #133 nationally
- NC State points per game
- 33.064th percentile · #51 nationally
- Stanford points allowed per game
- 41.51st percentile · #136 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
NC State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.28
- Rush success
- 37.7%
Stanford defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.39
- Rush success allowed
- 51.7%
When Stanford has the ball
- Stanford offense
- 18th
- NC State defense
- 20th
Show the underlying numbers
- Stanford offensive PPA per play
- 0.0318th percentile · #111 nationally
- NC State PPA allowed per play
- 0.1620th percentile · #109 nationally
- Stanford success rate
- 37%9th percentile · #126 nationally
- NC State success rate allowed
- 42%36th percentile · #89 nationally
- Stanford points per game
- 15.73rd percentile · #134 nationally
- NC State points allowed per game
- 27.724th percentile · #103 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Stanford offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.24
- Rush success
- 38.5%
NC State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.33
- Rush success allowed
- 47.4%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
CJ Bailey · 92% of charted pass attempts
1 of 163 throws names no passer
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 47%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 69 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 8.0
- over 68 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 72%
- over 68 attempts with a result
147 of 150 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 130 short · 17 deep · 3 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (47%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 8.0 over 68 attempts with a result.
Who's driving the offense?
The NC State offense in 2026
CJ Bailey
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
126/189 · 67% season
- Passing yards
- 1,507
- Touchdowns
- 9
- Interceptions
- 4
Last game
Wake Forest · Oct 10, 2026: 28/39, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
Jayden Scott
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 62
- Rushing yards
- 358
- Touchdowns
- 4
Last game
Louisville · Oct 3, 2026: 5 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD
Keenan Jackson
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 27
- Receiving yards
- 400
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
Wake Forest · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 61 yds, 0 TD
NC State player tables
Who is producing
NC State player production
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB | 6 | 126 / 189 | 1,507 | 8.0 | 9 | 4 |
| Will WilsonQB | 3 | 9 / 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshisa TraderWR | 2 | 2 / 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Stanford player tables
Who is producing
Stanford player production
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis WarrenQB | 6 | 114 / 195 | 1,351 | 6.9 | 6 | 2 |
| Mike Mitchell Jr.QB | 3 | 5 / 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie MirerQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
NC State's line averages 308.3 lbs against Stanford's 277.5 lbs front — an edge of 30.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| NC State OLNC State OL vs Stanford DL | 308.3 lbs | 277.5 lbs |
| Stanford OLStanford OL vs NC State DL | 303.9 lbs | 273.8 lbs |
- NC State
- Stanford
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
NC State
- Points per game
- 33.0#51 nationally · 64th percentile · 6 games
- Points allowed per game
- 27.7#103 nationally · 24th percentile · 6 games
- Returning production
- 60% of 2025 PPA returns · 70th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 54% · 127 of 127 with a class year
Stanford
- Points per game
- 15.7#134 nationally · 3rd percentile · 6 games
- Points allowed per game
- 41.5#136 nationally · 1st percentile · 6 games
- Returning production
- 21% of 2025 PPA returns · 30th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 42% · 113 of 113 with a class year
Recruiting
NC State
- 2026 signing class · #49 nationally
- 65th percentile · 210.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #38 nationally
- 73rd percentile · 0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #32 nationally
- 77th percentile · 757.1
Stanford
- 2026 signing class · #37 nationally
- 74th percentile · 218.9 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #42 nationally
- 70th percentile · 0.43 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #50 nationally
- 64th percentile · 705.8
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- NC State Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Stanford Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.4, 18th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- NC State Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.6, 23rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Stanford Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.8, 12th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- NC State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Stanford Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- NC State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 210.3 pts, 65th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Stanford Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.9 pts, 74th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- NC State Experience · returning production 2026: 60% returning, 70th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Stanford Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 30th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
NC State: solid line, circles · Stanford: dashed line, squares
NC State
- Offense · 2026
- 29.2 · 61st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 30.6 · 23rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.0 · 37th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 210.3 pts · 65th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 60% returning · 70th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Stanford
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 19.4 · 18th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 33.8 · 12th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.4 · 3rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 218.9 pts · 74th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 21% returning · 30th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
NC State's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 44 recorded plays
vs Wake Forest
L 14–38
39%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 86 recorded plays
vs Louisville
W 31–28
40%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 79 recorded plays
vs App State
W 41–31
53%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play
The coaching staff
NC State
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
Charlton Warren
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
D. J. Eliot
career +31.4 SP+ defense
Stanford
- Head coach
Tavita Pritchard
First season as Stanford's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Offensive coordinator
Terry Heffernan
no career rating on file
- Defensive coordinator
Kris Richard
no career rating on file
Head-to-head
NC State leads 1–0 since 2000
2024 · NC State 59, Stanford 28
Carter-Finley Stadium
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- NC State: 6 games
- Stanford: 6 games
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD