Friday, October 23

UConn

3–3

Massachusetts

4–2

7:00 PM ETPratt & Whitney StadiumEast Hartford, CT

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · UConn's case

UConn's offense leads its matchup in scoring

UConn's offense was in the 90th percentile for points per game last season. Massachusetts's defense was in the 0th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Massachusetts's answer

Massachusetts has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against UConn's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UConn has the ball

UConn offense: 93rd
Massachusetts defense: 6th

Show the underlying numbers

UConn offensive per play: 0.3193rd percentile · #9 nationally
Massachusetts PPA allowed per play: 0.266th percentile · #125 nationally
UConn: 46%80th percentile · #28 nationally
Massachusetts success rate allowed: 48%4th percentile · #131 nationally
UConn points per game: 35.390th percentile · #15 nationally
Massachusetts points allowed per game: 38.60th percentile · #136 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

UConn offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 46.4%

Massachusetts defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 50.4%

When Massachusetts has the ball

Massachusetts offense: 0th
UConn defense: 18th

Show the underlying numbers

Massachusetts offensive PPA per play: −0.030th percentile · #136 nationally
UConn PPA allowed per play: 0.2118th percentile · #108 nationally
Massachusetts success rate: 34%1st percentile · #134 nationally
UConn success rate allowed: 46%7th percentile · #127 nationally
Massachusetts points per game: 11.10th percentile · #136 nationally
UConn points allowed per game: 27.041st percentile · #81 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Massachusetts offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 32.7%

UConn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 49.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Joe Fagnano · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 170 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.4; over 168 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 168 attempts with a result

412 of 413 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 367 short · 45 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UConn offense in 2025

Joe Fagnano

QB · 12 games

284/412 · 69% season

Passing yards: 3,441
Touchdowns: 28
Interception: 1

Last game

Florida Atlantic · Nov 22, 2025: 33/46, 446 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Camryn Edwards

RB · 13 games

Carries: 210
Rushing yards: 1,240
Touchdowns: 15

Last game

Army · Dec 27, 2025: 11 carries, 108 yds, 1 TD

Skyler Bell

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 101
Receiving yards: 1,276
Touchdowns: 13

Last game

Florida Atlantic · Nov 22, 2025: 8 rec, 125 yds, 0 TD

UConn player tables

Who is producing

UConn player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

UConn — Passing production
Player
Joe FagnanoQB	12	284 / 412	3,441	8.4	28	1
Ksaan FarrarQB	2	11 / 18	84	4.7	0	0
Nick EversQB	2	10 / 15	105	7.0	1	0
Tucker McDonaldQB	2	1 / 3	45	15.0	0	0
John NeiderWR	2	1 / 2	15	7.5	1	0
Terrence Smith Jr.WR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Massachusetts player tables

Who is producing

Massachusetts player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Massachusetts — Passing production
Player
AJ HairstonQB	10	107 / 216	957	4.4	4	4
Grant JordanQB	7	63 / 110	595	5.4	3	2
Brandon RoseQB	6	52 / 88	424	4.8	1	3
Jacquon GibsonWR	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UConn's line averages 296.6 lbs against Massachusetts's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 23.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UConn OLUConn OL vs Massachusetts DL	296.6 lbs	273.1 lbs
Massachusetts OLMassachusetts OL vs UConn DL	314.7 lbs	264.9 lbs

UConn
Massachusetts

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UConn

Points per game: 35.3#15 nationally · 90th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 27.0#81 nationally · 41st percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 68% of 2024 PPA returns · 71st percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Massachusetts

Points per game: 11.1#136 nationally · 0th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 38.6#136 nationally · 0th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 76% of 2024 PPA returns · 80th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 98 of 98 with a class year

Recruiting

UConn

2025 signing class · #114 nationally: 16th percentile · 127.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #120 nationally: 12th percentile · −1.02 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #97 nationally: 28th percentile · 568.1

Massachusetts

2025 signing class · #134 nationally: 1st percentile · 37.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #129 nationally: 5th percentile · −1.73 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #118 nationally: 12th percentile · 488.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UConn: solid line, circles · Massachusetts: dashed line, squares

UConn

Offense · 2025: 32.0 · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.5 · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.6 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 127.8 pts · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 68% returning · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Massachusetts

Offense · SP+ 2025: 7.8 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 42.8 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 37.0 pts · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 76% returning · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UConn's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 27
vs Army · neutral site
L 16–41
Play stats pending
Nov 22 · 80 recorded plays
at Florida Atlantic
W 48–45
50%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 55 recorded plays
vs Air Force
W 26–16
56%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UConn

Head coach: Jason Candle
First season as UConn's head coach · career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: MrJacon000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Nunzio Campanile
no career rating on file
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Ryan Manalac
no career rating on file

Massachusetts

Head coach: Joe Harasymiak
career −36.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

UConn leads 5–2 since 2000

2024 · UConn 47, Massachusetts 42
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2023 · UConn 31, Massachusetts 18
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2022 · UConn 27, Massachusetts 10
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
2021 · Massachusetts 27, UConn 13
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2019 · UConn 56, Massachusetts 35
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2018 · Massachusetts 22, UConn 17
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
2012 · UConn 37, Massachusetts 0
Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

UConn: 13 games
Massachusetts: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

UConn's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Massachusetts has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When UConn has the ball

UConn offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Massachusetts defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Massachusetts has the ball

Massachusetts offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UConn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Joe Fagnano

Camryn Edwards

Skyler Bell

UConn player production

Massachusetts player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UConn

Massachusetts

Recruiting

UConn

Massachusetts

Season percentile profiles

UConn

Massachusetts

UConn's recent games

vs Army · neutral site

at Florida Atlantic

vs Air Force

The coaching staff

UConn

Massachusetts

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources