Thursday, October 22

Liberty

5–1

Kennesaw State

1–4

7:00 PM ETFifth Third StadiumKennesaw, GA

Weather

Forecast available from Thursday, October 15.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Liberty's case

Liberty's offense leads its matchup in

Liberty's offense was in the 62nd percentile for success rate last season. Kennesaw State's defense was in the 41st percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Kennesaw State's answer

Kennesaw State's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Kennesaw State's offense was in the 39th percentile for per play last season. Liberty's defense was in the 21st percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Liberty has the ball

Liberty offense: 48th
Kennesaw State defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

Liberty offensive PPA per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Kennesaw State PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
Liberty success rate: 44%62nd percentile · #52 nationally
Kennesaw State success rate allowed: 42%41st percentile · #80 nationally
Liberty points per game: 25.639th percentile · #84 nationally
Kennesaw State per game: 25.547th percentile · #73 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Liberty offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.14
Rush success: 47.5%

Kennesaw State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 44.6%

When Kennesaw State has the ball

Kennesaw State offense: 39th
Liberty defense: 21st

Show the underlying numbers

Kennesaw State offensive PPA per play: 0.1539th percentile · #79 nationally
Liberty PPA allowed per play: 0.2021st percentile · #100 nationally
Kennesaw State success rate: 41%39th percentile · #84 nationally
Liberty success rate allowed: 41%50th percentile · #68 nationally
Kennesaw State points per game: 26.745th percentile · #75 nationally
Liberty points allowed per game: 26.543rd percentile · #76 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Kennesaw State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.36
Rush success: 43.7%

Liberty defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 45.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ethan Vasko · 84% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 99 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.0; over 98 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 55%; over 98 attempts with a result

256 of 267 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 214 short · 42 deep · 11 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Liberty offense in 2025

Ethan Vasko

QB · 10 games

151/266 · 57% season

Passing yards: 1,961
Touchdowns: 10
Interceptions: 12

Last game

Louisiana Tech · Nov 22, 2025: 8/21, 141 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

Evan Dickens

RB · 11 games

Carries: 228
Rushing yards: 1,325
Touchdowns: 16

Last game

Kennesaw State · Nov 29, 2025: 43 carries, 267 yds, 4 TD

Donte Lee Jr

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 32
Receiving yards: 589
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Louisiana Tech · Nov 22, 2025: 1 rec, 17 yds, 0 TD

Liberty player tables

Who is producing

Liberty player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Liberty — Passing production
Player
Ethan VaskoQB	10	151 / 266	1,961	7.4	10	12
Michael MerdingerQB	5	21 / 41	350	8.5	1	0
Ethan HouckQB	2	1 / 6	17	2.8	0	1
Jayden BradfordQB	1	1 / 1	18	18.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Kennesaw State player tables

Who is producing

Kennesaw State player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Kennesaw State — Passing production
Player
Amari OdomQB	12	189 / 291	2,594	8.9	19	8
Dexter Williams IIQB	7	67 / 125	787	6.3	6	3
Tommy UlatowskiQB	2	3 / 5	9	1.8	0	0
Christian MossWR	1	1 / 1	13	13.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Liberty's line averages 299.5 lbs against Kennesaw State's 276.2 lbs front — an edge of 23.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Liberty OLLiberty OL vs Kennesaw State DL	299.5 lbs	276.2 lbs
Kennesaw State OLKennesaw State OL vs Liberty DL	305.8 lbs	270.8 lbs

Liberty
Kennesaw State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Liberty

Points per game: 25.6#84 nationally · 39th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 26.5#76 nationally · 43rd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 95th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Kennesaw State

Points per game: 26.7#75 nationally · 45th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 25.5#73 nationally · 47th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 46% of 2024 PPA returns · 42nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 101 of 101 with a class year

Recruiting

Liberty

2025 signing class · #86 nationally: 37th percentile · 160.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #98 nationally: 28th percentile · −0.59 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #84 nationally: 38th percentile · 599.1

Kennesaw State

2025 signing class · #135 nationally: 1st percentile · 28.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2025 · #134 nationally: 1st percentile · −2.30 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #132 nationally: 2nd percentile · 338.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Liberty: solid line, circles · Kennesaw State: dashed line, squares

Liberty

Offense · 2025: 24.6 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 32.8 · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.7 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 160.8 pts · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Kennesaw State

Offense · SP+ 2025: 26.4 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.2 · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.7 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 28.1 pts · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 46% returning · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Liberty's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 80 recorded plays
vs Kennesaw State
L 42–48
44%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 65 recorded plays
at Louisiana Tech
L 28–34
45%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 76 recorded plays
at Florida International
L 27–34
47%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Liberty

Head coach: Jamey Chadwell
career +1.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Newland Isaac
career +31.2 SP+ offense; Willy Korn
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Shawn Quinn
no career rating on file

Kennesaw State

Head coach: Jerry Mack
career −5.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Mitch Militello
career +26.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Marc Mattioli
career +30.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Kennesaw State leads 2–0 since 2000

2025 · Kennesaw State 48, Liberty 42
Williams Stadium (VA)
2024 · Kennesaw State 27, Liberty 24
Fifth Third Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Liberty: 12 games
Kennesaw State: 14 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Liberty's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Kennesaw State's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Liberty has the ball

Liberty offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Kennesaw State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Kennesaw State has the ball

Kennesaw State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Liberty defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ethan Vasko

Evan Dickens

Donte Lee Jr

Liberty player production

Kennesaw State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Recruiting

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Season percentile profiles

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Liberty's recent games

vs Kennesaw State

at Louisiana Tech

at Florida International

The coaching staff

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Liberty's offense leads its matchup in