Thursday, October 22

Liberty

5–1

Kennesaw State

1–4

7:00 PM ETFifth Third StadiumKennesaw, GA

Weather

Forecast available from Thursday, October 15.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Liberty's case

Liberty's defense leads its matchup in

Liberty's defense is in the 88th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Kennesaw State's offense is in the 23rd percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Kennesaw State's answer

Kennesaw State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Liberty's defense.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Liberty has the ball

Liberty offense: 53rd
Kennesaw State defense: 26th

Show the underlying numbers

Liberty offensive per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Kennesaw State PPA allowed per play: 0.1426th percentile · #101 nationally
Liberty: 48%77th percentile · #33 nationally
Kennesaw State success rate allowed: 43%28th percentile · #99 nationally
Liberty points per game: 31.256th percentile · #61 nationally
Kennesaw State points allowed per game: 23.450th percentile · #68 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Liberty offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.12
Rush success: 52.6%

Kennesaw State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.08
Rush success allowed: 46.4%

When Kennesaw State has the ball

Kennesaw State offense: 35th
Liberty defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Kennesaw State offensive PPA per play: 0.1035th percentile · #87 nationally
Liberty PPA allowed per play: −0.0480th percentile · #27 nationally
Kennesaw State success rate: 45%61st percentile · #54 nationally
Liberty success rate allowed: 34%91st percentile · #13 nationally
Kennesaw State points per game: 22.623rd percentile · #106 nationally
Liberty points allowed per game: 15.388th percentile · #18 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kennesaw State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 47.1%

Liberty defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 35.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Deshawn Purdie · 87% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 41 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.4; over 41 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 51%; over 41 attempts with a result

101 of 101 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 83 short · 18 deep · 0 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Liberty offense in 2026

Deshawn Purdie

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

70/114 · 61% season

Passing yards: 1,050
Touchdowns: 8
Interceptions: 0

Last game

Sam Houston · Oct 8, 2026: 10/14, 114 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Kam Davis

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 74
Rushing yards: 524
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Sam Houston · Oct 8, 2026: 10 carries, 67 yds, 1 TD

Makai Jackson

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 22
Receiving yards: 515
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Sam Houston · Oct 8, 2026: 3 rec, 46 yds, 0 TD

Liberty player tables

Who is producing

Liberty player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Liberty — Passing production
Player
Deshawn PurdieQB	6	70 / 114	1,050	9.2	8
Jaylen HendersonQB	3	5 / 13	101	7.8	2
Ethan VaskoQB	1	1 / 1	6	6.0	1
Kam DavisRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Kennesaw State player tables

Who is producing

Kennesaw State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Kennesaw State — Passing production
Player
Rickie CollinsQB	5	103 / 150	1,027	6.8	3	3
Landon VarnesQB	1	6 / 7	43	6.1	0	0
Skyler WilliamsQB	1	2 / 4	12	3.0	0	1

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Liberty's line averages 299.5 lbs against Kennesaw State's 276.2 lbs front — an edge of 23.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Liberty OLLiberty OL vs Kennesaw State DL	299.5 lbs	276.2 lbs
Kennesaw State OLKennesaw State OL vs Liberty DL	305.8 lbs	270.8 lbs

Liberty
Kennesaw State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Liberty

Points per game: 31.2#61 nationally · 56th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 15.3#18 nationally · 88th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 38% of 2025 PPA returns · 47th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Kennesaw State

Points per game: 22.6#106 nationally · 23rd percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 23.4#68 nationally · 50th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 6% of 2025 PPA returns · 9th percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Liberty

2026 signing class · #109 nationally: 21st percentile · 172.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #102 nationally: 26th percentile · −0.59 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #79 nationally: 43rd percentile · 633.4

Kennesaw State

2026 signing class · #120 nationally: 13th percentile · 163.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #134 nationally: 3rd percentile · −1.73 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #133 nationally: 4th percentile · 502.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Liberty: solid line, circles · Kennesaw State: dashed line, squares

Liberty

Offense · 2026: 29.0 · 60th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.6 · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 172.6 pts · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kennesaw State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.8 · 23rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.2 · 26th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 163.4 pts · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 6% returning · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Liberty's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 8 · 43 recorded plays
vs Sam Houston
W 35–3
63%
Success rate
0.47
PPA / play
Oct 2 · 57 recorded plays
at Delaware
W 30–14
51%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Sep 24 · 66 recorded plays
at Coastal Carolina
W 34–17
56%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Liberty

Head coach: Jamey Chadwell
career +1.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Newland Isaac
career +31.2 SP+ offense; Willy Korn
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Shawn Quinn
no career rating on file

Kennesaw State

Head coach: Jerry Mack
career −5.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Mitch Militello
career +26.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Marc Mattioli
career +30.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Kennesaw State leads 2–0 since 2000

2025 · Kennesaw State 48, Liberty 42
Williams Stadium (VA)
2024 · Kennesaw State 27, Liberty 24
Fifth Third Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Liberty: 6 games
Kennesaw State: 5 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Liberty's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Kennesaw State has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Liberty has the ball

Liberty offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Kennesaw State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Kennesaw State has the ball

Kennesaw State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Liberty defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Deshawn Purdie

Kam Davis

Makai Jackson

Liberty player production

Kennesaw State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Recruiting

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Season percentile profiles

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Liberty's recent games

vs Sam Houston

at Delaware

at Coastal Carolina

The coaching staff

Liberty

Kennesaw State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Liberty's defense leads its matchup in