Wednesday, October 21
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Sam Houston
1–4
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX
Forecast available from Wednesday, October 14.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · New Mexico State's case
New Mexico State's defense was in the 67th percentile for allowed per play last season. Sam Houston's offense was in the 2nd percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Sam Houston's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against New Mexico State's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Logan Fife · 77% of charted pass attempts
350 of 363 have a direction · 13 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 304 short · 46 deep · 13 not stated
The New Mexico State offense in 2025
QB · 10 games
203/361 · 56% season
Last game
Tennessee · Nov 15, 2025: 23/34, 166 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Middle Tennessee · Nov 29, 2025: 9 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD
WR · 10 games
Last game
UTEP · Nov 22, 2025: 9 rec, 78 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan FifeQB | 10 | 203 / 361 | 2,232 | 6.2 | 11 | 12 |
| Adam DamanteQB | 4 | 70 / 104 | 711 | 6.8 | 5 | 4 |
| Donovan FaupelWR | 3 | 2 / 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Parker AwadQB | 1 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glynn Johnson JrWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter WatsonQB | 7 | 104 / 182 | 1,108 | 6.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Landyn LockeQB | 6 | 71 / 141 | 765 | 5.4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mabrey MettauerQB | 6 | 36 / 61 | 293 | 4.8 | 3 | 2 |
| DJ BaileyQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nico OttomanelliPK | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
New Mexico State's line averages 304.0 lbs against Sam Houston's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 32.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State OLNew Mexico State OL vs Sam Houston DL | 304.0 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| Sam Houston OLSam Houston OL vs New Mexico State DL | 307.9 lbs | 264.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
New Mexico State: solid line, circles · Sam Houston: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 77 recorded plays
L 24–31
40%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 84 recorded plays
W 34–31
42%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 52 recorded plays
L 9–42
27%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play
David Yost
career +29.2 SP+ offense
Joe Morris
career +33.9 SP+ defense
Phil Longo
career −27.8 SP+ overall
Zack Patterson
career +15.3 SP+ offense
Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career +41.8 SP+ defense
2025 · New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston 10
Aggie Memorial Stadium
2024 · Sam Houston 31, New Mexico State 11
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
2023 · New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 13
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season