Wednesday, October 21
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Sam Houston
1–4
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX
Forecast available from Wednesday, October 14.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · New Mexico State's case
New Mexico State's defense is in the 55th percentile for allowed per play this season. Sam Houston's offense is in the 22nd percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Sam Houston's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against New Mexico State's defense.
03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Trey Hedden · 70% of charted pass attempts
112 of 116 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 85 short · 27 deep · 4 not stated
The New Mexico State offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
65/124 · 52% season
Last game
Florida International · Oct 7, 2026: 2/8, 19 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Florida International · Oct 7, 2026: 15 carries, 89 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Western Kentucky · Oct 1, 2026: 2 rec, 21 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey HeddenQB | 5 | 65 / 124 | 906 | 7.3 | 5 | 6 |
| Adam DamanteQB | 4 | 43 / 70 | 449 | 6.4 | 2 | 2 |
| Terrell Washington Jr.RB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landyn LockeQB | 5 | 116 / 175 | 1,306 | 7.5 | 11 | 3 |
| Brett HollowayQB | 2 | 3 / 5 | 64 | 12.8 | 1 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
New Mexico State's line averages 304.0 lbs against Sam Houston's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 32.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State OLNew Mexico State OL vs Sam Houston DL | 304.0 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| Sam Houston OLSam Houston OL vs New Mexico State DL | 307.9 lbs | 264.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
New Mexico State: solid line, circles · Sam Houston: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 7 · 59 recorded plays
L 3–22
34%
Success rate
−0.35
PPA / play
Oct 1 · 61 recorded plays
W 34–13
34%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 52 recorded plays
L 18–42
37%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
David Yost
career +29.2 SP+ offense
Joe Morris
career +33.9 SP+ defense
Phil Longo
career −27.8 SP+ overall
Zack Patterson
career +15.3 SP+ offense
Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career +41.8 SP+ defense
2025 · New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston 10
Aggie Memorial Stadium
2024 · Sam Houston 31, New Mexico State 11
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
2023 · New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 13
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date