Tuesday, October 20

South Alabama

4–2

Marshall

3–3

7:30 PM ETJoan C. Edwards StadiumHuntington, WV

Weather

Forecast available from Tuesday, October 13.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · South Alabama's case

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Alabama's offense was in the 44th percentile for points per game last season. Marshall's defense was in the 21st percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Marshall's answer

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Marshall's offense was in the 72nd percentile for points per game last season. South Alabama's defense was in the 19th percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense: 43rd
Marshall defense: 45th

Show the underlying numbers

South Alabama offensive per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
Marshall PPA allowed per play: 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
South Alabama: 42%44th percentile · #77 nationally
Marshall success rate allowed: 39%74th percentile · #36 nationally
South Alabama points per game: 26.544th percentile · #76 nationally
Marshall points allowed per game: 30.321st percentile · #108 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

South Alabama offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 42.2%

Marshall defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense: 43rd
South Alabama defense: 10th

Show the underlying numbers

Marshall offensive PPA per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
South Alabama PPA allowed per play: 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
Marshall success rate: 44%64th percentile · #49 nationally
South Alabama success rate allowed: 43%31st percentile · #94 nationally
Marshall points per game: 30.872nd percentile · #39 nationally
South Alabama points allowed per game: 30.419th percentile · #110 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Marshall offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 44.4%

South Alabama defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.31
Rush success allowed: 45.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Bishop Davenport · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 129 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.5; over 129 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 129 attempts with a result

290 of 296 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 263 short · 27 deep · 6 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.7 over 65 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The South Alabama offense in 2025

Bishop Davenport

QB · 12 games

200/294 · 68% season

Passing yards: 2,072
Touchdowns: 12
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Texas State · Nov 29, 2025: 13/21, 95 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Kentrel Bullock

RB · 12 games

Carries: 218
Rushing yards: 1,085
Touchdowns: 14

Last game

Texas State · Nov 29, 2025: 15 carries, 84 yds, 1 TD

Devin Voisin

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 67
Receiving yards: 775
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Texas State · Nov 29, 2025: 7 rec, 51 yds, 0 TD

South Alabama player tables

Who is producing

South Alabama player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

South Alabama — Passing production
Player
Bishop DavenportQB	12	200 / 294	2,072	7.0	12	6
Jared HollinsQB	4	12 / 16	101	6.3	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Marshall player tables

Who is producing

Marshall player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Marshall — Passing production
Player
Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQB	11	171 / 256	2,043	8.0	17	5
Zion TurnerQB	4	40 / 59	409	6.9	1	1
JacQai LongQB	4	6 / 18	31	1.7	0	0
Adrian NortonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Nathan TottenPK	1	1 / 1	12	12.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

South Alabama's line averages 301.6 lbs against Marshall's 276.4 lbs front — an edge of 25.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
South Alabama OLSouth Alabama OL vs Marshall DL	301.6 lbs	276.4 lbs
Marshall OLMarshall OL vs South Alabama DL	302.2 lbs	282.1 lbs

South Alabama
Marshall

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

South Alabama

Points per game: 26.5#76 nationally · 44th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.4#110 nationally · 19th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 25% of 2024 PPA returns · 24th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Marshall

Points per game: 30.8#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.3#108 nationally · 21st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 98th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 106 of 106 with a class year

Recruiting

South Alabama

2025 signing class · #118 nationally: 13th percentile · 120.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #103 nationally: 24th percentile · −0.65 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #102 nationally: 24th percentile · 544.9

Marshall

2025 signing class · #120 nationally: 12th percentile · 118.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #118 nationally: 13th percentile · −0.92 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #89 nationally: 34th percentile · 590.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

South Alabama: solid line, circles · Marshall: dashed line, squares

South Alabama

Offense · 2025: 25.4 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 36.0 · 8th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −2.0 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 120.7 pts · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 25% returning · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Marshall

Offense · SP+ 2025: 29.6 · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.8 · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 118.4 pts · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 98th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

South Alabama's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 55 recorded plays
at Texas State
L 26–49
33%
Success rate
−0.01
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 80 recorded plays
vs Southern Miss
W 42–35
45%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 79 recorded plays
at UL Monroe
W 26–14
43%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

South Alabama

Head coach: Major Applewhite
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Gl1204, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Jason Washington
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.7 SP+ defense; Todd Orlando
career +26.7 SP+ defense

Marshall

Head coach: Tony Gibson
career −4.5 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Rod Smith
career +30.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad Lambert
career +28.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

South Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

2023 · South Alabama 28, Marshall 0
Hancock Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

South Alabama: 12 games
Marshall: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in scoring

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Marshall defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

South Alabama defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Bishop Davenport

Kentrel Bullock

Devin Voisin

South Alabama player production

Marshall player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

South Alabama

Marshall

Recruiting

South Alabama

Marshall

Season percentile profiles

South Alabama

Marshall

South Alabama's recent games

at Texas State

vs Southern Miss

at UL Monroe

The coaching staff

South Alabama

Marshall

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources