Tuesday, October 20

South Alabama

4–2

Marshall

3–3

7:30 PM ETJoan C. Edwards StadiumHuntington, WV

Weather

Forecast available from Tuesday, October 13.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · South Alabama's case

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Alabama's offense is in the 85th percentile for points per game this season. Marshall's defense is in the 8th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Marshall's answer

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in

Marshall's offense is in the 53rd percentile for success rate this season. South Alabama's defense is in the 1st percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense: 74th
Marshall defense: 2nd

Show the underlying numbers

South Alabama offensive per play: 0.2374th percentile · #34 nationally
Marshall PPA allowed per play: 0.312nd percentile · #135 nationally
South Alabama success rate: 44%50th percentile · #70 nationally
Marshall success rate allowed: 45%15th percentile · #117 nationally
South Alabama points per game: 38.885th percentile · #21 nationally
Marshall points allowed per game: 33.78th percentile · #127 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

South Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.35
Rush success: 43.8%

Marshall defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 44.6%

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense: 38th
South Alabama defense: 3rd

Show the underlying numbers

Marshall offensive PPA per play: 0.1138th percentile · #85 nationally
South Alabama PPA allowed per play: 0.273rd percentile · #134 nationally
Marshall success rate: 44%53rd percentile · #64 nationally
South Alabama success rate allowed: 51%1st percentile · #137 nationally
Marshall points per game: 22.020th percentile · #110 nationally
South Alabama points allowed per game: 34.57th percentile · #128 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Marshall offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 45.5%

South Alabama defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.38
Rush success allowed: 50.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jared Hollins · 52% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 26 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 26 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 26 attempts with a result

61 of 63 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 57 short · 4 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The South Alabama offense in 2026

Jared Hollins

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

56/92 · 61% season

Passing yards: 855
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Arkansas State · Oct 8, 2026: 6/10, 76 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

PJ Martin

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 92
Rushing yards: 423
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Arkansas State · Oct 8, 2026: 16 carries, 95 yds, 1 TD

Jeremiah Jones-Thomas

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 22
Receiving yards: 261
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Arkansas State · Oct 8, 2026: 1 rec, 9 yds, 0 TD

South Alabama player tables

Who is producing

South Alabama player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

South Alabama — Passing production
Player
Jared HollinsQB	4	56 / 92	855	9.3	7	2
Bishop DavenportQB	2	40 / 59	450	7.6	3	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Marshall player tables

Who is producing

Marshall player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Marshall — Passing production
Player
Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQB	6	89 / 139	1,014	7.3	6	5
Zion TurnerQB	4	33 / 51	374	7.3	2	2
Khalil WilkinsQB	5	6 / 13	99	7.6	0	0
Owen SweeneyWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

South Alabama's line averages 301.6 lbs against Marshall's 276.4 lbs front — an edge of 25.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
South Alabama OLSouth Alabama OL vs Marshall DL	301.6 lbs	276.4 lbs
Marshall OLMarshall OL vs South Alabama DL	302.2 lbs	282.1 lbs

South Alabama
Marshall

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

South Alabama

Points per game: 38.8#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 34.5#128 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 79% of 2025 PPA returns · 90th percentile
Upperclassmen: 56% · 163 of 163 with a class year

Marshall

Points per game: 22.0#110 nationally · 20th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 33.7#127 nationally · 8th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 99% of 2025 PPA returns · 99th percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 139 of 139 with a class year

Recruiting

South Alabama

2026 signing class · #77 nationally: 45th percentile · 187.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #96 nationally: 31st percentile · −0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #107 nationally: 23rd percentile · 573.4

Marshall

2026 signing class · #123 nationally: 11th percentile · 162.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #120 nationally: 13th percentile · −0.96 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #97 nationally: 30th percentile · 594.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

South Alabama: solid line, circles · Marshall: dashed line, squares

South Alabama

Offense · 2026: 29.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 39.9 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 187.2 pts · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Marshall

Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.5 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.1 pts · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

South Alabama's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 8 · 61 recorded plays
at Arkansas State
W 56–49
46%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 67 recorded plays
vs UL Monroe
W 52–35
51%
Success rate
0.39
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 55 recorded plays
at Kentucky
L 21–45
35%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play

The coaching staff

South Alabama

Head coach: Major Applewhite
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Gl1204, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Jason Washington
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.7 SP+ defense; Todd Orlando
career +26.7 SP+ defense

Marshall

Head coach: Tony Gibson
career −4.5 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Rod Smith
career +30.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad Lambert
career +28.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

South Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

2023 · South Alabama 28, Marshall 0
Hancock Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

South Alabama: 6 games
Marshall: 6 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in success rate

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Marshall defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

South Alabama defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Jared Hollins

PJ Martin

Jeremiah Jones-Thomas

South Alabama player production

Marshall player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

South Alabama

Marshall

Recruiting

South Alabama

Marshall

Season percentile profiles

South Alabama

Marshall

South Alabama's recent games

at Arkansas State

vs UL Monroe

at Kentucky

The coaching staff

South Alabama

Marshall

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in