Tuesday, October 20

Marshall

3–3

South Alabama

4–2

7:30 PM ETJoan C. Edwards StadiumHuntington, WV

Weather

Forecast available from Tuesday, October 13.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Marshall's case

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Marshall's offense was in the 72nd percentile for points per game last season. South Alabama's defense was in the 19th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · South Alabama's answer

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Alabama's offense was in the 44th percentile for points per game last season. Marshall's defense was in the 21st percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense: 43rd
South Alabama defense: 10th

Show the underlying numbers

Marshall offensive per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
South Alabama PPA allowed per play: 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
Marshall: 44%64th percentile · #49 nationally
South Alabama success rate allowed: 43%31st percentile · #94 nationally
Marshall points per game: 30.872nd percentile · #39 nationally
South Alabama points allowed per game: 30.419th percentile · #110 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Marshall offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 44.4%

South Alabama defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.31
Rush success allowed: 45.3%

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense: 43rd
Marshall defense: 45th

Show the underlying numbers

South Alabama offensive PPA per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
Marshall PPA allowed per play: 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
South Alabama success rate: 42%44th percentile · #77 nationally
Marshall success rate allowed: 39%74th percentile · #36 nationally
South Alabama points per game: 26.544th percentile · #76 nationally
Marshall points allowed per game: 30.321st percentile · #108 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

South Alabama offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 42.2%

Marshall defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson · 76% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 126 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.8; over 124 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 69%; over 124 attempts with a result

252 of 257 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 230 short · 22 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 8.8 over 124 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Marshall offense in 2025

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

QB · 11 games

171/256 · 67% season

Passing yards: 2,043
Touchdowns: 17
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Georgia Southern · Nov 29, 2025: 9/16, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

QB · 11 games

Carries: 159
Rushing yards: 658
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Georgia Southern · Nov 29, 2025: 1 carries, 2 yds, 0 TD

Demarcus Lacey

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 65
Receiving yards: 769
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Georgia Southern · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 53 yds, 0 TD

Marshall player tables

Who is producing

Marshall player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Marshall — Passing production
Player
Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQB	11	171 / 256	2,043	8.0	17	5
Zion TurnerQB	4	40 / 59	409	6.9	1	1
JacQai LongQB	4	6 / 18	31	1.7	0	0
Adrian NortonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Nathan TottenPK	1	1 / 1	12	12.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

South Alabama player tables

Who is producing

South Alabama player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

South Alabama — Passing production
Player
Bishop DavenportQB	12	200 / 294	2,072	7.0	12	6
Jared HollinsQB	4	12 / 16	101	6.3	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Marshall's line averages 302.2 lbs against South Alabama's 282.1 lbs front — an edge of 20.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Marshall OLMarshall OL vs South Alabama DL	302.2 lbs	282.1 lbs
South Alabama OLSouth Alabama OL vs Marshall DL	301.6 lbs	276.4 lbs

Marshall
South Alabama

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Marshall

Points per game: 30.8#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.3#108 nationally · 21st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 100% of 2024 PPA returns · 98th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 106 of 106 with a class year

South Alabama

Points per game: 26.5#76 nationally · 44th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.4#110 nationally · 19th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 25% of 2024 PPA returns · 24th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

Marshall

2025 signing class · #120 nationally: 12th percentile · 118.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #118 nationally: 13th percentile · −0.92 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #89 nationally: 34th percentile · 590.6

South Alabama

2025 signing class · #118 nationally: 13th percentile · 120.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #103 nationally: 24th percentile · −0.65 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #102 nationally: 24th percentile · 544.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Marshall: solid line, circles · South Alabama: dashed line, squares

Marshall

Offense · 2025: 29.6 · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.8 · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 118.4 pts · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 100% returning · 98th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

South Alabama

Offense · SP+ 2025: 25.4 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 36.0 · 8th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −2.0 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 120.7 pts · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 25% returning · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Marshall's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 52 recorded plays
vs Georgia Southern
L 19–24
48%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 71 recorded plays
at App State
L 24–26
51%
Success rate
0.20
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 62 recorded plays
at Georgia State
W 30–18
50%
Success rate
0.42
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Marshall

Head coach: Tony Gibson
career −4.5 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Rod Smith
career +30.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad Lambert
career +28.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

South Alabama

Head coach: Major Applewhite
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Gl1204, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Jason Washington
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.7 SP+ defense; Todd Orlando
career +26.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

South Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

2023 · South Alabama 28, Marshall 0
Hancock Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Marshall: 12 games
South Alabama: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

South Alabama defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Marshall defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

Demarcus Lacey

Marshall player production

South Alabama player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Marshall

South Alabama

Recruiting

Marshall

South Alabama

Season percentile profiles

Marshall

South Alabama

Marshall's recent games

vs Georgia Southern

at App State

at Georgia State

The coaching staff

Marshall

South Alabama

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources