Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–1
vs
Nevada
2–3
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFargodomeFargo, ND
Played indoors at Fargodome.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
74%
North Dakota State win probability
Nevada 26%
North Dakota State by 10.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±16.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · North Dakota State's case
North Dakota State's defense is in the 98th percentile for allowed per play this season. Nevada's offense is in the 35th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Nevada's answer
Nevada's defense is in the 57th percentile for success rate allowed this season. North Dakota State's offense is in the 34th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives North Dakota State a 74% chance to win and predicts North Dakota State by 10.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±16.5 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Nathan Hayes · 77% of charted pass attempts
89 of 91 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 73 short · 16 deep · 2 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (53%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 10.2 over 31 attempts with a result.
The North Dakota State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
87/138 · 63% season
Last game
UNLV · Oct 10, 2026: 12/22, 124 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
UNLV · Oct 10, 2026: 3 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Last game
UNLV · Oct 10, 2026: 1 rec, 16 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan HayesQB | 6 | 87 / 138 | 1,119 | 8.1 | 8 | 5 |
| Trey DrakeQB | 1 | 3 / 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston BrownQB | 2 | 1 / 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesQB | 4 | 53 / 89 | 654 | 7.3 | 3 | 2 |
| AJ BiancoQB | 3 | 14 / 24 | 136 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke DuncanQB | 1 | 7 / 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Marshaun BrownWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
North Dakota State's line averages 300.1 lbs against Nevada's 266.5 lbs front — an edge of 33.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State OLNorth Dakota State OL vs Nevada DL | 300.1 lbs | 266.5 lbs |
| Nevada OLNevada OL vs North Dakota State DL | 298.8 lbs | 268.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
North Dakota State: solid line, circles · Nevada: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 59 recorded plays
L 7–13
37%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 65 recorded plays
W 28–0
52%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 56 recorded plays
W 31–10
30%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Tim Polasek
no career rating on file
Jeff Choate
career −14.3 SP+ overall
Brett Bartolone
career +14.2 SP+ offense
David Gilbertson
career +14.2 SP+ offense
Kane Ioane
career +26.1 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2026 season to date