01 · Washington State's case
No clear statistical strength for Washington State yet
In every matchup we can rate this season, the Washington State unit ranks well below the Oregon State unit it faces.
See when each team has the ballSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Washington State
1–5
at
Oregon State
4–2
6:00 PM ET3:00 PM PTReser StadiumCorvallis, OR
Weather
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
At kickoff · 3:00 PM PT · Updated 11:41 AM PT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Corvallis · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Game forecast
20%
Washington State win probability
Oregon State 80%
Oregon State by 12.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Oregon State's answer
Oregon State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
Oregon State's defense is in the 58th percentile for allowed per play this season. Washington State's offense is in the 3rd percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Washington State a 20% chance to win and predicts Oregon State by 12.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Washington State has the ball
- Washington State offense
- 3rd
- Oregon State defense
- 58th
Show the underlying numbers
- Washington State offensive PPA per play
- −0.113rd percentile · #133 nationally
- Oregon State PPA allowed per play
- 0.0458th percentile · #55 nationally
- Washington State
- 33%1st percentile · #137 nationally
- Oregon State success rate allowed
- 40%49th percentile · #71 nationally
- Washington State points per game
- 18.511th percentile · #123 nationally
- Oregon State per game
- 22.058th percentile · #57 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
Washington State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.21
- Rush success
- 32.8%
Oregon State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.13
- Rush success allowed
- 41.0%
When Oregon State has the ball
- Oregon State offense
- 93rd
- Washington State defense
- 66th
Show the underlying numbers
- Oregon State offensive PPA per play
- 0.3293rd percentile · #9 nationally
- Washington State PPA allowed per play
- 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
- Oregon State success rate
- 51%93rd percentile · #11 nationally
- Washington State success rate allowed
- 39%60th percentile · #56 nationally
- Oregon State points per game
- 41.893rd percentile · #10 nationally
- Washington State points allowed per game
- 23.747th percentile · #73 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Oregon State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.30
- Rush success
- 52.4%
Washington State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.24
- Rush success allowed
- 42.2%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Caden Pinnick · 100% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 51%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 53 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 7.3
- over 53 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 64%
- over 53 attempts with a result
104 of 108 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 91 short · 13 deep · 4 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (51%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.6 over 17 attempts with a result.
Who's driving the offense?
The Washington State offense in 2026
Caden Pinnick
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
110/178 · 62% season
- Passing yards
- 952
- Touchdowns
- 3
- Interceptions
- 5
Last game
Utah State · Oct 9, 2026: 23/36, 156 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Caden Pinnick
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 74
- Rushing yards
- 194
- Touchdowns
- 3
Last game
Utah State · Oct 9, 2026: 11 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD
Darrius Clemons
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 20
- Receiving yards
- 218
- Touchdowns
- 0
Last game
Utah State · Oct 9, 2026: 3 rec, 28 yds, 0 TD
Washington State player tables
Who is producing
Washington State player production
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden PinnickQB | 6 | 110 / 178 | 952 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Oregon State player tables
Who is producing
Oregon State player production
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden AtkinsonQB | 6 | 165 / 234 | 2,236 | 9.6 | 21 | 2 |
| Maalik MurphyQB | 2 | 11 / 12 | 81 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Brady JonesQB | 2 | 1 / 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ NewberryRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Washington State's line averages 301.3 lbs against Oregon State's 298.4 lbs front — about even.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Washington State OLWashington State OL vs Oregon State DL | 301.3 lbs | 298.4 lbs |
| Oregon State OLOregon State OL vs Washington State DL | 304.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
- Washington State
- Oregon State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Washington State
- Points per game
- 18.5#123 nationally · 11th percentile · 6 games
- Points allowed per game
- 23.7#73 nationally · 47th percentile · 6 games
- Returning production
- 91% of 2025 PPA returns · 96th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 48% · 146 of 146 with a class year
Oregon State
- Points per game
- 41.8#10 nationally · 93rd percentile · 6 games
- Points allowed per game
- 22.0#57 nationally · 58th percentile · 6 games
- Returning production
- 58% of 2025 PPA returns · 67th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 56% · 135 of 135 with a class year
Recruiting
Washington State
- 2026 signing class · #128 nationally
- 7th percentile · 159.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #79 nationally
- 43rd percentile · −0.38 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #81 nationally
- 42nd percentile · 630.3
Oregon State
- 2026 signing class · #100 nationally
- 28th percentile · 176.8 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #72 nationally
- 48th percentile · −0.22 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #76 nationally
- 45th percentile · 635.8
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Washington State Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.3, 8th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Oregon State Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 72nd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Washington State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0, 50th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Oregon State Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.0, 62nd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Washington State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Oregon State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Washington State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 159.3 pts, 7th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Oregon State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.8 pts, 28th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Washington State Experience · returning production 2026: 91% returning, 96th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Oregon State Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning, 67th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Washington State: solid line, circles · Oregon State: dashed line, squares
Washington State
- Offense · 2026
- 15.3 · 8th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 26.0 · 50th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.3 · 12th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 159.3 pts · 7th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 91% returning · 96th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Oregon State
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 31.6 · 72nd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 24.0 · 62nd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.4 · 3rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 176.8 pts · 28th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 58% returning · 67th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Washington State's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 9 · 70 recorded plays
at Utah State
L 16–17
29%
Success rate
−0.09
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
vs Fresno State
L 6–26
23%
Success rate
−0.43
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 71 recorded plays
vs Arizona
L 24–34
32%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Washington State
- Head coach
Kirby Moore
First season as Washington State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Bsuorangecrush (talk), Public domain
- Offensive coordinator
Matt Miller
career +29.1 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Trent Bray
career +20.0 SP+ defense
Oregon State
- Head coach
JaMarcus Shephard
First season as Oregon State's head coach · no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
Mitch Dahlen
no career rating on file
Ryan Wallace
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
- Defensive coordinator
Cort Dennison
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.4 SP+ defense
Mike MacIntyre
career +27.4 SP+ defense
Photo: University of Colorado Boulder Alumni Association, CC BY-SA 2.0
Head-to-head
Washington State leads 14–12 since 2000
2025 · Washington State 32, Oregon State 8
Gesa Field
2025 · Oregon State 10, Washington State 7
Reser Stadium
2024 · Oregon State 41, Washington State 38
Reser Stadium
2023 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 35
Gesa Field
2022 · Oregon State 24, Washington State 10
Reser Stadium
2021 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 24
Gesa Field
2020 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 28
Reser Stadium
2019 · Washington State 54, Oregon State 53
Gesa Field
2018 · Washington State 56, Oregon State 37
Reser Stadium
2017 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 23
Gesa Field
2016 · Washington State 35, Oregon State 31
Reser Stadium
2015 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 31
Gesa Field
2014 · Washington State 39, Oregon State 32
Reser Stadium
2013 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 24
Gesa Field
2012 · Oregon State 19, Washington State 6
Reser Stadium
2011 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 21
2010 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 14
Reser Stadium
2009 · Oregon State 42, Washington State 10
Gesa Field
2008 · Oregon State 66, Washington State 13
Reser Stadium
2007 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
Gesa Field
2006 · Washington State 13, Oregon State 6
Reser Stadium
2005 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 33
Reser Stadium
2004 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 19
Reser Stadium
2003 · Washington State 36, Oregon State 30
Gesa Field
2001 · Washington State 34, Oregon State 27
Gesa Field
2000 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 9
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- Washington State: 6 games
- Oregon State: 6 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD