Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Washington State
1–5
6:00 PM ET3:00 PM PTReser StadiumCorvallis, OR
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
At kickoff · 3:00 PM PT · Updated 11:41 AM PT · National Weather Service
Corvallis · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
80%
Oregon State win probability
Washington State 20%
Oregon State by 12.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Oregon State's case
Oregon State's defense was in the 71st percentile for success rate allowed last season. Washington State's offense was in the 42nd percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Washington State's answer
Washington State's defense was in the 81st percentile for points allowed per game last season. Oregon State's offense was in the 7th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Oregon State's leading passer threw 64% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Maalik Murphy · 64% of charted pass attempts
268 of 276 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 230 short · 38 deep · 8 not stated
The Oregon State offense in 2025
QB · 10 games
160/276 · 58% season
Last game
Tulsa · Nov 15, 2025: 5/11, 56 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Washington State · Nov 29, 2025: 16 carries, 71 yds, 0 TD
WR · 11 games
Last game
Washington State · Nov 29, 2025: 7 rec, 61 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maalik MurphyQB | 10 | 160 / 276 | 1,802 | 6.5 | 9 | 8 |
| Gabarri JohnsonQB | 8 | 62 / 100 | 501 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Tristan Ti'aQB | 3 | 37 / 53 | 385 | 7.3 | 3 | 2 |
| Trent WalkerWR | 2 | 1 / 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zevi EckhausQB | 11 | 192 / 306 | 2,092 | 6.8 | 15 | 12 |
| Jaxon PotterQB | 3 | 67 / 95 | 604 | 6.4 | 4 | 3 |
| Julian DuggerQB | 3 | 2 / 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Oregon State's line averages 304.6 lbs against Washington State's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 31.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State OLOregon State OL vs Washington State DL | 304.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| Washington State OLWashington State OL vs Oregon State DL | 301.3 lbs | 298.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Oregon State: solid line, circles · Washington State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 54 recorded plays
L 8–32
37%
Success rate
−0.14
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 55 recorded plays
L 14–31
29%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 86 recorded plays
L 17–21
43%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
JaMarcus Shephard
First season as Oregon State's head coach · no career rating on file
Mitch Dahlen
no career rating on file
Ryan Wallace
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Cort Dennison
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.4 SP+ defense
Mike MacIntyre
career +27.4 SP+ defense
Photo: University of Colorado Boulder Alumni Association, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kirby Moore
First season as Washington State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Bsuorangecrush (talk), Public domain
Matt Miller
career +29.1 SP+ offense
Trent Bray
career +20.0 SP+ defense
2025 · Washington State 32, Oregon State 8
Gesa Field
2025 · Oregon State 10, Washington State 7
Reser Stadium
2024 · Oregon State 41, Washington State 38
Reser Stadium
2023 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 35
Gesa Field
2022 · Oregon State 24, Washington State 10
Reser Stadium
2021 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 24
Gesa Field
2020 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 28
Reser Stadium
2019 · Washington State 54, Oregon State 53
Gesa Field
2018 · Washington State 56, Oregon State 37
Reser Stadium
2017 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 23
Gesa Field
2016 · Washington State 35, Oregon State 31
Reser Stadium
2015 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 31
Gesa Field
2014 · Washington State 39, Oregon State 32
Reser Stadium
2013 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 24
Gesa Field
2012 · Oregon State 19, Washington State 6
Reser Stadium
2011 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 21
2010 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 14
Reser Stadium
2009 · Oregon State 42, Washington State 10
Gesa Field
2008 · Oregon State 66, Washington State 13
Reser Stadium
2007 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
Gesa Field
2006 · Washington State 13, Oregon State 6
Reser Stadium
2005 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 33
Reser Stadium
2004 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 19
Reser Stadium
2003 · Washington State 36, Oregon State 30
Gesa Field
2001 · Washington State 34, Oregon State 27
Gesa Field
2000 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 9
Evidence window: 2025 full season