2026 Oregon State vs 2026 Washington State
Hypothetical
75% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Oregon State Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 72nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.3, 8th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.0, 62nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.8 pts, 28th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Washington State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 159.3 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oregon State Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning, 67th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Washington State Experience · returning production 2026: 91% returning, 96th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Oregon State | 2026 Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3293rd percentile | −0.113rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0458th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 41.893rd percentile6 games | 18.511th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.058th percentile6 games | 23.747th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 45th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 63rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 41st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 19th percentile
Campus distance
330 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oregon State OL vs 2026 Washington State DL | 304.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| 2026 Washington State OL vs 2026 Oregon State DL | 301.3 lbs | 298.4 lbs |
2026 Oregon State line yards 3.36 · 2026 Washington State stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Washington State line yards 2.68 · 2026 Oregon State stuff rate 15.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Washington State leads 14–12 since 2000
Washington State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State 8–32 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2025 | Oregon State 10–7 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2024 | Oregon State 41–38 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2023 | Oregon State 35–38 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2022 | Oregon State 24–10 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2021 | Oregon State 24–31 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2020 | Oregon State 28–38 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2019 | Oregon State 53–54 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2018 | Oregon State 37–56 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2017 | Oregon State 23–52 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2016 | Oregon State 31–35 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2015 | Oregon State 31–52 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2014 | Oregon State 32–39 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2013 | Oregon State 52–24 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2012 | Oregon State 19–6 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2011 | Oregon State 44–21 Washington State | Washington State home |
| 2010 | Oregon State 14–31 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2009 | Oregon State 42–10 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2008 | Oregon State 66–13 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2007 | Oregon State 52–17 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2006 | Oregon State 6–13 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2005 | Oregon State 44–33 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2004 | Oregon State 38–19 Washington State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
| 2003 | Oregon State 30–36 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2001 | Oregon State 27–34 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2000 | Oregon State 38–9 Washington State | Oregon State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- JaMarcus Shephard (First season as Oregon State's head coach)
OC
- Mitch Dahlen
- Ryan Wallace (co-OC)
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 59% of its run–pass plays, 99th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC
- Cort Dennison (co-DC)
- Mike MacIntyre
career average +27.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kirby Moore (First season as Washington State's head coach)
OC
- Matt Miller
career average +29.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 70th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Trent Bray
career average +20.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Washington State at Oregon State · October 17, 2026
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