Saturday, October 17

Air Force

4–1

UNLV

4–2

3:30 PM ET1:30 PM MTFalcon StadiumColorado Springs, CO

Weather

Clear67°FS 8 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM MT · Updated 12:31 PM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Colorado Springs · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear67°FS 8 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

47%

Air Force win probability

UNLV 53%

UNLV by 1.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Air Force's case

Air Force's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Air Force's offense was in the 86th percentile for per play last season. UNLV's defense was in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · UNLV's answer

UNLV's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UNLV's offense was in the 87th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play last season. Air Force's defense was in the 0th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Air Force a 47% chance to win and predicts UNLV by 1.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Air Force has the ball

Air Force offense: 86th
UNLV defense: 18th

Show the underlying numbers

Air Force offensive PPA per play: 0.2986th percentile · #19 nationally
UNLV PPA allowed per play: 0.2118th percentile · #108 nationally
Air Force: 48%90th percentile · #14 nationally
UNLV success rate allowed: 44%24th percentile · #104 nationally
Air Force points per game: 29.865th percentile · #48 nationally
UNLV per game: 28.035th percentile · #89 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Air Force offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 46.4%

UNLV defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.49
Rush success allowed: 39.5%

When UNLV has the ball

UNLV offense: 87th
Air Force defense: 0th

Show the underlying numbers

UNLV offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
Air Force PPA allowed per play: 0.400th percentile · #136 nationally
UNLV success rate: 47%84th percentile · #23 nationally
Air Force success rate allowed: 49%1st percentile · #134 nationally
UNLV points per game: 34.187th percentile · #18 nationally
Air Force points allowed per game: 30.320th percentile · #109 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UNLV offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.44
Rush success: 49.1%

Air Force defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 49.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Liam Szarka · 73% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 51%
Usage: charted in this direction: 59 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.4; over 59 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 63%; over 59 attempts with a result

116 of 121 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 87 short · 29 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (51%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 15.2 over 26 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Air Force offense in 2025

Liam Szarka

QB · 10 games

75/120 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,294
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 5

Last game

UConn · Nov 15, 2025: 2/3, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Liam Szarka

QB · 10 games

Carries: 190
Rushing yards: 922
Touchdowns: 13

Last game

UConn · Nov 15, 2025: 7 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD

Cade Harris

WR · 10 games

Receptions: 35
Receiving yards: 584
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

New Mexico · Nov 22, 2025: 2 rec, 23 yds, 0 TD

Air Force player tables

Who is producing

Air Force player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Air Force — Passing production
Player
Liam SzarkaQB	10	75 / 120	1,294	10.8	9	5
Josh JohnsonQB	5	16 / 28	374	13.4	4	2
Kemper HodgesFB	3	6 / 14	74	5.3	0	0
Quin SmithWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

UNLV player tables

Who is producing

UNLV player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

UNLV — Passing production
Player
Anthony ColandreaQB	14	275 / 417	3,459	8.3	23	9
Alex OrjiQB	1	3 / 3	37	12.3	0	0
Cameron FrielQB	1	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Jaden BradleyWR	1	1 / 1	16	16.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Air Force's line averages 293.3 lbs against UNLV's 280.9 lbs front — an edge of 12.4 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Air Force OLAir Force OL vs UNLV DL	293.3 lbs	280.9 lbs
UNLV OLUNLV OL vs Air Force DL	312.1 lbs	253.3 lbs

Air Force
UNLV

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Air Force

Points per game: 29.8#48 nationally · 65th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.3#109 nationally · 20th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 63% of 2024 PPA returns · 65th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 141 of 141 with a class year

UNLV

Points per game: 34.1#18 nationally · 87th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 28.0#89 nationally · 35th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 15% of 2024 PPA returns · 11th percentile
Upperclassmen: 51% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Recruiting

Air Force

2025 signing class · #128 nationally: 6th percentile · 80.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #130 nationally: 4th percentile · −1.77 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025: not on file

UNLV

2025 signing class · #95 nationally: 30th percentile · 154.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #109 nationally: 20th percentile · −0.72 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #51 nationally: 62nd percentile · 700.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Air Force: solid line, circles · UNLV: dashed line, squares

Air Force

Offense · 2025: 28.3 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 31.7 · 26th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.2 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 80.1 pts · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 63% returning · 65th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UNLV

Offense · SP+ 2025: 33.8 · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.8 · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.2 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 154.4 pts · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 15% returning · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Air Force's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 28 · 74 recorded plays
at Colorado State
W 42–21
54%
Success rate
0.45
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 61 recorded plays
vs New Mexico
L 3–20
34%
Success rate
−0.14
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 71 recorded plays
at UConn
L 16–26
45%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Air Force

Head coach: Troy Calhoun
career −0.5 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Department of Defense Current Photos, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Mike Thiessen
career +27.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Steve Russ
career +35.8 SP+ defense

UNLV

Head coach: Dan Mullen
career +13.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Nascar9919, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Corey Dennis
career +33.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Paul Guenther
career +29.8 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Air Force leads 14–7 since 2000

2025 · UNLV 51, Air Force 48
Allegiant Stadium
2023 · UNLV 31, Air Force 27
Falcon Stadium
2022 · Air Force 42, UNLV 7
Allegiant Stadium
2021 · Air Force 48, UNLV 14
Falcon Stadium
2018 · Air Force 41, UNLV 35
Sam Boyd Stadium
2017 · Air Force 34, UNLV 30
Falcon Stadium
2014 · Air Force 48, UNLV 21
Sam Boyd Stadium
2013 · UNLV 41, Air Force 21
Falcon Stadium
2012 · UNLV 38, Air Force 35
Sam Boyd Stadium
2011 · Air Force 45, UNLV 17
Falcon Stadium
2010 · Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Sam Boyd Stadium
2009 · Air Force 45, UNLV 17
Falcon Stadium
2008 · Air Force 29, UNLV 28
Sam Boyd Stadium
2007 · Air Force 31, UNLV 14
Falcon Stadium
2006 · UNLV 42, Air Force 39
Sam Boyd Stadium
2005 · Air Force 42, UNLV 7
Falcon Stadium
2004 · Air Force 27, UNLV 10
Sam Boyd Stadium
2003 · Air Force 24, UNLV 7
Falcon Stadium
2002 · Air Force 49, UNLV 32
Sam Boyd Stadium
2001 · UNLV 34, Air Force 10
Falcon Stadium
2000 · UNLV 34, Air Force 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Air Force: 12 games
UNLV: 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Air Force's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UNLV's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Air Force has the ball

Air Force offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UNLV defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When UNLV has the ball

UNLV offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Air Force defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Liam Szarka

Liam Szarka

Cade Harris

Air Force player production

UNLV player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Air Force

UNLV

Recruiting

Air Force

UNLV

Season percentile profiles

Air Force

UNLV

Air Force's recent games

at Colorado State

vs New Mexico

at UConn

The coaching staff

Air Force

UNLV

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources