2026 Air Force vs 2026 UNLV
Hypothetical
60% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Air Force Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UNLV Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 34th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Air Force Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.3, 54th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UNLV Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.3, 54th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Air Force Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UNLV Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Air Force Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 116.5 pts, 1st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UNLV Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 196.4 pts, 55th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Air Force Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning, 66th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 UNLV Experience · returning production 2026: 15% returning, 21st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Air Force | 2026 UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2271st percentile | 0.0625th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0274th percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 28.848th percentile5 games | 23.026th percentile6 games |
| per game | 17.481st percentile5 games | 20.866th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 8th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 55th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 33rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 46th percentile
Campus distance
595 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Air Force OL vs 2026 UNLV DL | 293.3 lbs | 280.9 lbs |
| 2026 UNLV OL vs 2026 Air Force DL | 312.1 lbs | 253.3 lbs |
2026 Air Force line yards 3.70 · 2026 UNLV stuff rate 16.8%
2026 UNLV line yards 3.06 · 2026 Air Force stuff rate 19.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Air Force leads 14–7 since 2000
UNLV has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force 48–51 UNLV | Allegiant Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2023 | Air Force 27–31 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2022 | Air Force 42–7 UNLV | Allegiant Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2021 | Air Force 48–14 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2018 | Air Force 41–35 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2017 | Air Force 34–30 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2014 | Air Force 48–21 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2013 | Air Force 21–41 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2012 | Air Force 35–38 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2011 | Air Force 45–17 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2010 | Air Force 35–20 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2009 | Air Force 45–17 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2008 | Air Force 29–28 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2007 | Air Force 31–14 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2006 | Air Force 39–42 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2005 | Air Force 42–7 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2004 | Air Force 27–10 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2003 | Air Force 24–7 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2002 | Air Force 49–32 UNLV | Sam Boyd Stadium · UNLV home |
| 2001 | Air Force 10–34 UNLV | Falcon Stadium · Air Force home |
| 2000 | Air Force 13–34 UNLV | UNLV home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Troy Calhoun
OC
- Mike Thiessen
career average +27.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Triple option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 13% of its run–pass plays, 0th percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.2 plays a game, 93rd percentile)
DC
- Steve Russ
career average +35.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dan Mullen
OC
- Corey Dennis
career average +33.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 18th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.0 plays a game, 55th percentile)
DC
- Paul Guenther
career average +29.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
UNLV at Air Force · October 17, 2026
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