Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1
at
Army
3–2
12:00 PM ETMichie StadiumWest Point, NY
Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:47 PM ET · National Weather Service
West Point · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
35%
Florida Atlantic win probability
Army 65%
Army by 5.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Florida Atlantic's case
Florida Atlantic's offense is in the 57th percentile for per play this season. Army's defense is in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Army's answer
Army's offense is in the 88th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play this season. Florida Atlantic's defense is in the 15th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 33 mph at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Caden Veltkamp · 96% of charted pass attempts
157 of 159 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 139 short · 18 deep · 2 not stated
The Florida Atlantic offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
127/174 · 73% season
Last game
Texas Southern · Oct 3, 2026: 13/16, 247 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Texas Southern · Oct 3, 2026: 4 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Last game
Texas Southern · Oct 3, 2026: 7 rec, 126 yds, 3 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden VeltkampQB | 5 | 127 / 174 | 1,425 | 8.2 | 12 | 2 |
| Drew DevillierQB | 3 | 6 / 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah DaoudQB | 1 | 1 / 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan MagwoodQB | 1 | 1 / 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Easton MesserWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale HellumsQB | 5 | 31 / 55 | 356 | 6.5 | 3 | 1 |
| Bryson LuterQB | 1 | 1 / 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan WashingtonQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach MundellWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Florida Atlantic's line averages 302.8 lbs against Army's 268.1 lbs front — an edge of 34.7 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic OLFlorida Atlantic OL vs Army DL | 302.8 lbs | 268.1 lbs |
| Army OLArmy OL vs Florida Atlantic DL | 294.1 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Florida Atlantic: solid line, circles · Army: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 24 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 66–10
71%
Success rate
0.93
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 70 recorded plays
W 45–17
51%
Success rate
0.36
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 67 recorded plays
W 16–10
39%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Brett Dewhurst
career +38.1 SP+ defense
Cody Worley
career +27.9 SP+ offense
Daryl Dixon
no career rating on file
2024 · Army 24, Florida Atlantic 7
FAU Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date