Saturday, October 17

Army

3–2

Florida Atlantic

4–1

12:00 PM ETMichie StadiumWest Point, NY

Weather

Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:47 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

West Point · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

65%

Army win probability

Florida Atlantic 35%

Army by 5.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Army's case

Army's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Army's offense was in the 61st percentile for per play last season. Florida Atlantic's defense was in the 16th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Florida Atlantic's answer

Florida Atlantic has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Army's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Army leans on its top passer

Army's leading passer threw 64% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Army has the ball

Army offense: 61st
Florida Atlantic defense: 16th

Show the underlying numbers

Army offensive PPA per play: 0.1961st percentile · #49 nationally
Florida Atlantic PPA allowed per play: 0.2216th percentile · #113 nationally
Army: 42%48th percentile · #71 nationally
Florida Atlantic success rate allowed: 44%27th percentile · #99 nationally
Army points per game: 23.831st percentile · #94 nationally
Florida Atlantic per game: 36.33rd percentile · #131 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Army offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 39.0%

Florida Atlantic defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 49.4%

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Florida Atlantic offense: 43rd
Army defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Florida Atlantic offensive PPA per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
Army PPA allowed per play: 0.1836th percentile · #83 nationally
Florida Atlantic success rate: 40%27th percentile · #99 nationally
Army success rate allowed: 45%13th percentile · #118 nationally
Florida Atlantic points per game: 29.563rd percentile · #51 nationally
Army points allowed per game: 21.671st percentile · #40 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Florida Atlantic offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.42
Rush success: 39.2%

Army defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.10
Rush success allowed: 45.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Cale Hellums · 64% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 31 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.3; over 30 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 43%; over 30 attempts with a result

67 of 69 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 11 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 11 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 50 short · 17 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (46%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.3 over 21 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Army offense in 2025

Cale Hellums

QB · 13 games

47/87 · 54% season

Passing yards: 694
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 3

Last game

UConn · Dec 27, 2025: 7/8, 108 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Cale Hellums

QB · 13 games

Carries: 305
Rushing yards: 1,215
Touchdowns: 18

Last game

UConn · Dec 27, 2025: 15 carries, 45 yds, 2 TD

Noah Short

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 32
Receiving yards: 438
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

UConn · Dec 27, 2025: 7 rec, 108 yds, 1 TD

Army player tables

Who is producing

Army player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Army — Passing production
Player
Cale HellumsQB	13	47 / 87	694	8.0	4	3
Dewayne ColemanQB	6	19 / 36	273	7.6	2	2
Noah ShortWR	2	2 / 2	84	42.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Florida Atlantic player tables

Who is producing

Florida Atlantic player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Florida Atlantic — Passing production
Player
Caden VeltkampQB	12	345 / 514	3,652	7.1	24	17
Zach GibsonQB	6	31 / 53	323	6.1	3	3
Jordan MagwoodQB	2	7 / 9	63	7.0	0	0
Carson CruverQB	1	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Easton MesserWR	1	1 / 1	48	48.0	1	0
Michael ValentinoQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Army's line averages 294.1 lbs against Florida Atlantic's 294.1 lbs front — about even.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Army OLArmy OL vs Florida Atlantic DL	294.1 lbs	294.1 lbs
Florida Atlantic OLFlorida Atlantic OL vs Army DL	302.8 lbs	268.1 lbs

Army
Florida Atlantic

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Army

Points per game: 23.8#94 nationally · 31st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 21.6#40 nationally · 71st percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 25% of 2024 PPA returns · 23rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 180 of 180 with a class year

Florida Atlantic

Points per game: 29.5#51 nationally · 63rd percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 36.3#131 nationally · 3rd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 21% of 2024 PPA returns · 17th percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Recruiting

Army

2025 signing class · #129 nationally: 5th percentile · 77.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #131 nationally: 4th percentile · −1.92 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #134 nationally: 0th percentile · 23.7

Florida Atlantic

2025 signing class · #85 nationally: 38th percentile · 163.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #80 nationally: 41st percentile · −0.37 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #82 nationally: 39th percentile · 605.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Army: solid line, circles · Florida Atlantic: dashed line, squares

Army

Offense · 2025: 24.7 · 38th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.1 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.3 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 77.2 pts · 5th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 25% returning · 23rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Florida Atlantic

Offense · SP+ 2025: 27.8 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 38.1 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 163.2 pts · 38th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 21% returning · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Army's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 27
vs UConn · neutral site
W 41–16
Play stats pending
Dec 13 · 46 recorded plays
vs Navy · neutral site
L 16–17
26%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 61 recorded plays
at UTSA
W 27–24
38%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Army

Head coach: Jeff Monken
career −3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Dana Clarke, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Cody Worley
career +27.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Daryl Dixon
no career rating on file

Florida Atlantic

Head coach: Zach Kittley
career −8.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Brett Dewhurst
career +38.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Army leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · Army 24, Florida Atlantic 7
FAU Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Army: 13 games
Florida Atlantic: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Army's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Florida Atlantic has no clear answer on this matchup

Army leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Army has the ball

Army offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Florida Atlantic defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Florida Atlantic offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Army defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Cale Hellums

Cale Hellums

Noah Short

Army player production

Florida Atlantic player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Army

Florida Atlantic

Recruiting

Army

Florida Atlantic

Season percentile profiles

Army

Florida Atlantic

Army's recent games

vs UConn · neutral site

vs Navy · neutral site

at UTSA

The coaching staff

Army

Florida Atlantic

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources