2026 Army vs 2026 Florida Atlantic

Hypothetical

Army by 2.9

58% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ArmyPreseason baseline −3.5In-season results +1.6

Florida AtlanticPreseason baseline −6.0In-season results +1.2

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Army	2026 Florida Atlantic
Offensive / play	0.3088th percentile	0.1857th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1718th percentile	0.1815th percentile
Points per game	30.654th percentile5 games	37.280th percentile5 games
per game	19.272nd percentile5 games	26.629th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Army2026 Florida Atlantic

Momentum

Army↘ falling (−27 pctl over 3 seasons)

Florida Atlantic↗ rising (+35 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Army

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 5th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 46th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+41)

2026 Florida Atlantic

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 31st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 50th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+19)

Campus distance

1095 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Army OL vs 2026 Florida Atlantic DL	294.1 lbs	294.1 lbs
2026 Florida Atlantic OL vs 2026 Army DL	302.8 lbs	268.1 lbs

2026 Army line yards 3.65 · 2026 Florida Atlantic stuff rate 19.7%

2026 Florida Atlantic line yards 2.89 · 2026 Army stuff rate 16.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Army leads 1–0 since 2000

Army has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2024	Army 24–7 Florida Atlantic	FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home

Coaching & program context

2026 Army

Jeff Monken

Cody Worley

career average +27.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Triple option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 18% of its run–pass plays, 1st percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)

Daryl Dixon

no career track record on file

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Florida Atlantic

Zach Kittley

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.8 plays a game, 96th percentile)

Brett Dewhurst

career average +38.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.