Saturday, October 17

Buffalo

3–3

Massachusetts

4–2

1:00 PM ETUB StadiumAmherst, NY

Weather

Partly cloudy46°FNW 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 12%

At kickoff · 1:00 PM ET · Updated 3:58 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Amherst · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy46°FNW 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 12%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

74%

Buffalo win probability

Massachusetts 26%

Buffalo by 9.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Buffalo's case

Buffalo's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Buffalo's defense was in the 73rd percentile for success rate allowed last season. Massachusetts's offense was in the 1st percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Massachusetts's answer

Massachusetts has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Buffalo's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 26 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Buffalo has the ball

Buffalo offense: 16th
Massachusetts defense: 6th

Show the underlying numbers

Buffalo offensive per play: 0.0816th percentile · #112 nationally
Massachusetts PPA allowed per play: 0.266th percentile · #125 nationally
Buffalo success rate: 40%22nd percentile · #106 nationally
Massachusetts success rate allowed: 48%4th percentile · #131 nationally
Buffalo points per game: 24.032nd percentile · #93 nationally
Massachusetts per game: 38.60th percentile · #136 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Buffalo offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 40.7%

Massachusetts defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 50.4%

When Massachusetts has the ball

Massachusetts offense: 0th
Buffalo defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Massachusetts offensive PPA per play: −0.030th percentile · #136 nationally
Buffalo PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Massachusetts success rate: 34%1st percentile · #134 nationally
Buffalo success rate allowed: 39%73rd percentile · #38 nationally
Massachusetts points per game: 11.10th percentile · #136 nationally
Buffalo points allowed per game: 23.561st percentile · #54 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Massachusetts offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 32.7%

Buffalo defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 38.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ta'Quan Roberson · 87% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 47%
Usage: charted in this direction: 162 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.3; over 162 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 162 attempts with a result

347 of 360 have a direction · 13 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 284 short · 63 deep · 13 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (47%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.0 over 68 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Buffalo offense in 2025

Ta'Quan Roberson

QB · 11 games

206/356 · 58% season

Passing yards: 2,520
Touchdowns: 17
Interceptions: 12

Last game

Ohio · Nov 28, 2025: 16/27, 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Al-Jay Henderson

RB · 12 games

Carries: 182
Rushing yards: 755
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Ohio · Nov 28, 2025: 5 carries, 31 yds, 1 TD

Victor Snow

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 62
Receiving yards: 815
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Ohio · Nov 28, 2025: 4 rec, 82 yds, 0 TD

Buffalo player tables

Who is producing

Buffalo player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Buffalo — Passing production
Player
Ta'Quan RobersonQB	11	206 / 356	2,520	7.1	17	12
Gunnar GrayQB	4	29 / 53	228	4.3	2	2

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Massachusetts player tables

Who is producing

Massachusetts player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Massachusetts — Passing production
Player
AJ HairstonQB	10	107 / 216	957	4.4	4	4
Grant JordanQB	7	63 / 110	595	5.4	3	2
Brandon RoseQB	6	52 / 88	424	4.8	1	3
Jacquon GibsonWR	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Buffalo's line averages 298.1 lbs against Massachusetts's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 25.0 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Buffalo OLBuffalo OL vs Massachusetts DL	298.1 lbs	273.1 lbs
Massachusetts OLMassachusetts OL vs Buffalo DL	314.7 lbs	254.4 lbs

Buffalo
Massachusetts

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Buffalo

Points per game: 24.0#93 nationally · 32nd percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 23.5#54 nationally · 61st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 66% of 2024 PPA returns · 68th percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Massachusetts

Points per game: 11.1#136 nationally · 0th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 38.6#136 nationally · 0th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 76% of 2024 PPA returns · 80th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 98 of 98 with a class year

Recruiting

Buffalo

2025 signing class · #92 nationally: 33rd percentile · 155.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #87 nationally: 36th percentile · −0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #112 nationally: 17th percentile · 513.3

Massachusetts

2025 signing class · #134 nationally: 1st percentile · 37.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #129 nationally: 5th percentile · −1.73 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #118 nationally: 12th percentile · 488.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Buffalo: solid line, circles · Massachusetts: dashed line, squares

Buffalo

Offense · 2025: 18.2 · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 27.4 · 49th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.6 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 155.6 pts · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 66% returning · 68th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Massachusetts

Offense · SP+ 2025: 7.8 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 42.8 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 37.0 pts · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 76% returning · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Buffalo's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 28 · 63 recorded plays
vs Ohio
L 26–31
46%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play
Nov 19 · 83 recorded plays
vs Miami (OH)
L 20–37
34%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 12 · 66 recorded plays
at Central Michigan
L 19–38
30%
Success rate
−0.40
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Buffalo

Head coach: Pete Lembo
career −6.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Tony Tokarz
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Brian Dougherty
no career rating on file

Massachusetts

Head coach: Joe Harasymiak
career −36.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

Buffalo leads 6–1 since 2000

2025 · Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2024 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2022 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 7
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2015 · Massachusetts 31, Buffalo 26
UB Stadium
2014 · Buffalo 41, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2013 · Buffalo 32, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2012 · Buffalo 29, Massachusetts 19
Gillette Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Buffalo: 12 games
Massachusetts: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Buffalo's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Massachusetts has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Buffalo has the ball

Buffalo offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Massachusetts defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Massachusetts has the ball

Massachusetts offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Buffalo defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ta'Quan Roberson

Al-Jay Henderson

Victor Snow

Buffalo player production

Massachusetts player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Buffalo

Massachusetts

Recruiting

Buffalo

Massachusetts

Season percentile profiles

Buffalo

Massachusetts

Buffalo's recent games

vs Ohio

vs Miami (OH)

at Central Michigan

The coaching staff

Buffalo

Massachusetts

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Buffalo's defense leads its matchup in allowed