Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Wake Forest
5–1 · AP #21
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTCalifornia Memorial StadiumBerkeley, CA
Clear66°FW 5 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 11:27 AM PT · National Weather Service
Berkeley · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear66°FW 5 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
21%
California win probability
Wake Forest 79%
Wake Forest by 11.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · California's case
California's defense was in the 43rd percentile for success rate allowed last season. Wake Forest's offense was in the 15th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Wake Forest's answer
Wake Forest's defense was in the 90th percentile for allowed per play last season. California's offense was in the 30th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives California a 21% chance to win and predicts Wake Forest by 11.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · 97% of charted pass attempts
443 of 453 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 385 short · 58 deep · 10 not stated
The California offense in 2025
QB · 13 games
315/491 · 64% season
Last game
Hawai'i · Dec 24, 2025: 28/39, 337 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Hawai'i · Dec 24, 2025: 17 carries, 90 yds, 1 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
Hawai'i · Dec 24, 2025: 9 rec, 138 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQB | 13 | 315 / 491 | 3,446 | 7.0 | 18 | 9 |
| Devin BrownQB | 4 | 4 / 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob De JesusWR | 1 | 1 / 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason MiniTE | 2 | 2 / 2 | 58 | 29.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby AshfordQB | 12 | 191 / 322 | 2,472 | 7.7 | 12 | 8 |
| Deshawn PurdieQB | 8 | 41 / 82 | 618 | 7.5 | 6 | 3 |
| Steele PizzellaQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
California's line averages 317.3 lbs against Wake Forest's 273.0 lbs front — an edge of 44.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| California OLCalifornia OL vs Wake Forest DL | 317.3 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
| Wake Forest OLWake Forest OL vs California DL | 302.7 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
California: solid line, circles · Wake Forest: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 24
L 31–35
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 78 recorded plays
W 38–35
46%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 77 recorded plays
L 10–31
29%
Success rate
−0.21
PPA / play
Tosh Lupoi
First season as California's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Jordan Somerville
no career rating on file
Da'Von Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +28.6 SP+ defense
Michael Hutchings
career +28.6 SP+ defense
Jake Dickert
career +5.6 SP+ overall
Rob Ezell
career +28.3 SP+ offense
Scottie Hazelton
career +25.7 SP+ defense
2024 · California 46, Wake Forest 36
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season