Saturday, October 17

Maryland

2–4

Rutgers

1–4

12:30 PM ETSECU StadiumCollege Park, MD

Weather

Clear52°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 5%

At kickoff · 12:30 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

College Park · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear52°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 5%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

65%

Maryland win probability

Rutgers 35%

Maryland by 5.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Maryland's case

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Maryland's offense was in the 25th percentile for per play last season. Rutgers's defense was in the 1st percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Rutgers's answer

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in

Rutgers's offense was in the 81st percentile for success rate last season. Maryland's defense was in the 33rd percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 32 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense: 25th
Rutgers defense: 1st

Show the underlying numbers

Maryland offensive PPA per play: 0.1125th percentile · #97 nationally
Rutgers PPA allowed per play: 0.311st percentile · #134 nationally
Maryland success rate: 39%17th percentile · #113 nationally
Rutgers success rate allowed: 47%6th percentile · #128 nationally
Maryland points per game: 23.529th percentile · #95 nationally
Rutgers per game: 31.813th percentile · #117 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Maryland offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.32
Rush success: 37.8%

Rutgers defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.36
Rush success allowed: 47.6%

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense: 71st
Maryland defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Rutgers offensive PPA per play: 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
Maryland PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Rutgers success rate: 46%81st percentile · #26 nationally
Maryland success rate allowed: 43%33rd percentile · #92 nationally
Rutgers points per game: 28.756th percentile · #60 nationally
Maryland points allowed per game: 26.543rd percentile · #76 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Rutgers offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 44.3%

Maryland defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.15
Rush success allowed: 51.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Malik Washington · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 182 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.5; over 180 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 57%; over 180 attempts with a result

464 of 474 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 408 short · 56 deep · 10 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Maryland offense in 2025

Malik Washington

QB · 12 games

273/473 · 58% season

Passing yards: 2,963
Touchdowns: 17
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Michigan State · Nov 29, 2025: 38/61, 459 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

DeJuan Williams

RB · 12 games

Carries: 128
Rushing yards: 501
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Michigan State · Nov 29, 2025: 5 carries, 52 yds, 1 TD

Jalil Farooq

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 58
Receiving yards: 545
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Michigan State · Nov 29, 2025: 10 rec, 110 yds, 2 TD

Maryland player tables

Who is producing

Maryland player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Maryland — Passing production
Player
Malik WashingtonQB	12	273 / 473	2,963	6.3	17	9
Khristian MartinQB	5	11 / 17	105	6.2	1	0
Octavian Smith Jr.WR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Rutgers player tables

Who is producing

Rutgers player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Rutgers — Passing production
Player
Athan KaliakmanisQB	12	229 / 368	3,124	8.5	20	7
AJ SuraceQB	2	4 / 9	58	6.4	2	0
Sean AshenfelderQB	1	1 / 1	11	11.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Maryland's line averages 311.2 lbs against Rutgers's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 39.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Maryland OLMaryland OL vs Rutgers DL	311.2 lbs	272.1 lbs
Rutgers OLRutgers OL vs Maryland DL	311.0 lbs	289.2 lbs

Maryland
Rutgers

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Maryland

Points per game: 23.5#95 nationally · 29th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 26.5#76 nationally · 43rd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 13% of 2024 PPA returns · 6th percentile
Upperclassmen: 29% · 105 of 105 with a class year

Rutgers

Points per game: 28.7#60 nationally · 56th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 31.8#117 nationally · 13th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 67% of 2024 PPA returns · 70th percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 133 of 133 with a class year

Recruiting

Maryland

2025 signing class · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 228.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #29 nationally: 79th percentile · 0.64 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #52 nationally: 62nd percentile · 699.3

Rutgers

2025 signing class · #33 nationally: 76th percentile · 218.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #35 nationally: 75th percentile · 0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #53 nationally: 61st percentile · 689.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Maryland: solid line, circles · Rutgers: dashed line, squares

Maryland

Offense · 2025: 24.4 · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.7 · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.9 · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 228.4 pts · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 13% returning · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Rutgers

Offense · SP+ 2025: 31.6 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.7 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.2 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 218.6 pts · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 67% returning · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Maryland's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 76 recorded plays
vs Michigan State · neutral site
L 28–38
45%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 58 recorded plays
vs Michigan
L 20–45
36%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 67 recorded plays
at Illinois
L 6–24
43%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Maryland

Head coach: Mike Locksley
career −5.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Clint Trickett
career +22.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.0 SP+ defense; Ted Monachino
career +26.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Atlanta Falcons, CC BY 3.0

Rutgers

Head coach: Greg Schiano
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Kirk Ciarrocca
career +28.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Travis Johansen
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Maryland leads 8–6 since 2000

2025 · Rutgers 35, Maryland 20
SHI Stadium
2024 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 17
SECU Stadium
2023 · Maryland 42, Rutgers 24
SHI Stadium
2022 · Maryland 37, Rutgers 0
SECU Stadium
2021 · Maryland 40, Rutgers 16
SHI Stadium
2020 · Rutgers 27, Maryland 24
SECU Stadium
2019 · Maryland 48, Rutgers 7
High Point Solutions Stadium
2018 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 7
SECU Stadium
2017 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 24
High Point Solutions Stadium
2016 · Maryland 31, Rutgers 13
SECU Stadium
2015 · Maryland 46, Rutgers 41
High Point Solutions Stadium
2014 · Rutgers 41, Maryland 38
SECU Stadium
2009 · Rutgers 34, Maryland 13
SECU Stadium
2007 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 24
High Point Solutions Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Maryland: 12 games
Rutgers: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Rutgers defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Maryland defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Malik Washington

DeJuan Williams

Jalil Farooq

Maryland player production

Rutgers player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Maryland

Rutgers

Recruiting

Maryland

Rutgers

Season percentile profiles

Maryland

Rutgers

Maryland's recent games

vs Michigan State · neutral site

vs Michigan

at Illinois

The coaching staff

Maryland

Rutgers

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in