Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–1 · AP #4
at
Indiana
6–0 · AP #5
12:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)Bloomington, IN
Clear52°FNE 7 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 12:15 PM ET · National Weather Service
Bloomington · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear52°FNE 7 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
58%
Ohio State win probability
Indiana 42%
Ohio State by 2.9
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Ohio State's case
Ohio State's defense is in the 89th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Indiana's offense is in the 83rd percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Indiana's answer
Indiana's defense is in the 98th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Ohio State's offense is in the 93rd percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Ohio State a 58% chance to win and predicts Ohio State by 2.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Julian Sayin · 88% of charted pass attempts
134 of 136 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 111 short · 23 deep · 2 not stated
The Ohio State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
116/163 · 71% season
Last game
Maryland · Oct 10, 2026: 13/21, 242 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Maryland · Oct 10, 2026: 23 carries, 107 yds, 2 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Maryland · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 93 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian SayinQB | 6 | 116 / 163 | 1,772 | 10.9 | 17 | 2 |
| Luke FaheyQB | 2 | 9 / 11 | 203 | 18.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Tavien St. ClairQB | 2 | 5 / 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HooverQB | 6 | 88 / 129 | 1,364 | 10.6 | 17 | 0 |
| Grant WilsonQB | 3 | 4 / 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler CherryQB | 1 | 1 / 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Ohio State's line averages 309.2 lbs against Indiana's 272.3 lbs front — an edge of 36.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State OLOhio State OL vs Indiana DL | 309.2 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
| Indiana OLIndiana OL vs Ohio State DL | 307.0 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Ohio State: solid line, circles · Indiana: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 67 recorded plays
W 45–16
51%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 74 recorded plays
W 31–14
49%
Success rate
0.20
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 67 recorded plays
W 42–19
60%
Success rate
0.56
PPA / play
Keenan Bailey
Co-offensive coordinator · career +37.6 SP+ offense
Tim Walton
Co-defensive coordinator · career +7.7 SP+ defense
Tino Sunseri
Co-offensive coordinator · career +35.3 SP+ offense
2025 · Indiana 13, Ohio State 10
Neutral site · Lucas Oil Stadium
2024 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 15
Ohio Stadium
2023 · Ohio State 23, Indiana 3
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2022 · Ohio State 56, Indiana 14
Ohio Stadium
2021 · Ohio State 54, Indiana 7
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2020 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 35
Ohio Stadium
2019 · Ohio State 51, Indiana 10
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2018 · Ohio State 49, Indiana 26
Ohio Stadium
2017 · Ohio State 49, Indiana 21
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2016 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 17
Ohio Stadium
2015 · Ohio State 34, Indiana 27
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2014 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 27
Ohio Stadium
2013 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 14
Ohio Stadium
2012 · Ohio State 52, Indiana 49
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2011 · Ohio State 34, Indiana 20
Ohio Stadium
2010 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 10
Ohio Stadium
2009 · Ohio State 33, Indiana 14
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2006 · Ohio State 44, Indiana 3
Ohio Stadium
2005 · Ohio State 41, Indiana 10
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2004 · Ohio State 30, Indiana 7
Ohio Stadium
2003 · Ohio State 35, Indiana 6
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2002 · Ohio State 45, Indiana 17
Ohio Stadium
2001 · Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Evidence window: 2026 season to date